Xavier Musketeers vs. Connecticut Huskies Spread Bet

Xavier Musketeers (10-9 SU, 12-6-1 ATS) vs. Connecticut Huskies (17-2 SU, 10-8-1 ATS)

When: Sunday, January 28th, 12:00 PM (ET)

Where: XL Center, CT, Hartford

TV: FS1

Point Spread: XAV +11/UCONN -11

Total: 148

Money Line: Xavier Musketeers +453/-636

Notable Injuries

Musketeers

• Jerome Hunter (Out) Heart
• Zach Freemantle (Out) Foot

Huskies

Recent Form

Xavier has been better at home this season, going 8-4 compared to 2-5 on the road. Their average scoring margin at home is +8.2, while on the road, it is -0.1.

Over their last 10 road games, the Musketeers have gone just 3-7, and they are coming off an 85-78 loss to Creighton. So far this year, they have been the underdog in eight games, going 2-6.

Today’s over/under line of 148 is similar to the Musketeers’ average over/under line of 147.8. Their over/under record for the season is 10-9. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 167 points.

As the underdog this season, Xavier has an impressive ATS record of 6-1-1. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Musketeers have gone 6-3-1 vs. the spread. On the road, Xavier is 5-2 ATS this year and they have gone 3-0 vs. the spread in their last three road games.

Connecticut is 17-2 this season and has won seven straight games. They are a perfect 12-0 at home, where they are winning by an average of 24.7 points per game. This season, the Huskies have been favored in 18 of their 19 games, going 17-1.

Last time out, Connecticut defeated Villanova, 66-65. Over their last 10 games at home, the Huskies are 10-0. So far this season, they are 7-1 in Big East games.

This season, the over/under record for Connecticut games is 10-9, and today’s line of 148 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (146). So far, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 129 points and their OU record during this stretch is 1-2. On the year, their games have averaged 145.6 points.

This season, Connecticut has an ATS record of 10-8-1 and they have gone 7-5 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Huskies have gone 5-4-1 vs. the spread.

Analysis

In their recent matchup, the Xavier offense ended with 78 points against Creighton. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 40.8% and made 7 threes. In terms of three-point shooting, the Musketeers offense has been good from outside, hitting 35% of their three-pointers on an average of 20.1 attempts per game. Their overall field goal percentage is currently 44%.

Xavier’s defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 71.7 points per game. In their most recent game, the Xavier defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as Creighton knocked down 11 three-pointers on their way to 85 points.

The Connecticut offense is coming off a game where they scored 66 points against Villanova. They posted a field goal percentage of 40.8% and connected on 8 threes. The top scorer for the Huskies was Tristen Newton with 25 points, while Cam Spencer also added 14 to the scoreboard.

This season, the Connecticut defense has been impressive, holding the 34th position in the country while permitting an average of 64.6 points per contest. So far, the Connecticut defense is giving up an average of 7.5 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 9.6 times per game (378th).

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Xavier has an ATS record of 3-0 while averaging 76 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Connecticut has an ATS record of 2-2-1 while averaging 74 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Xavier has an ATS mark of 3-1-1 while going 1-4 straight up.
• Across their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Huskies have an overall record of 5-0 while going 2-2-1 against the spread.

Crew’s Total Pick

No question Uconn stands out offensively in this matchup, but Xav plays decent defense and could easily stay with double digits. It also doesn’t hurt that Connecticut hasn’t played in over a week and while their legs may be strong, they may not be as sharp offensively in the early going. I don’t mind the Musketeeers plus the big number but I could easily see the Connecticut defense come up big (59.8 PPG Allowed in L5 home games). Take the Under 149.