Wisconsin vs. Michigan: Free Picks & Expert Analysis for Big Ten Title Game

Wisconsin Badgers (26-8 SU, 22-12 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (24-9 SU, 15-18 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 16th, 3:30 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: CBS

Point Spread: WISC -3.5/MICH +3.5

Total: 148.5

Money Line: Wisconsin Badgers -174/+142

Notable Injuries

Badgers

• Camren Hunter (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Riccardo Greppi (Questionable) Undisclosed

Wolverines

• Sam Walters (Questionable) Back
• Justin Pippen (Questionable) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Wisconsin improved to 26-8 on the season with a 77-74 win over Michigan State on Saturday. The Badgers were +2.5 point underdogs heading into the game and covered the spread with the victory.

After leading 37-33 at halftime, Wisconsin scored 40 points in the 2nd half while allowing 41. The total points for the game were 151, going over the 145.5-point line.

Michigan Wolverines Recent Game/Games

Michigan improved to 24-9 on the season with a narrow 81-80 win over Maryland on Saturday. The Wolverines, who were +4.5 point underdogs, not only pulled off the upset but also covered the spread.

Michigan led 38-34 at halftime and scored 43 points in the second half, while allowing 46. The game’s total points of 161 surpassed the O/U line of 149.5.

Analysis

In their last game, Wisconsin put up 77 points, shooting 42.6% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 51.9%. They hit 56% of their two-point attempts (14/25) but struggled from beyond the arc, connecting on just 31% of their threes (9/29). At the free-throw line, they were solid, making 22 of 28 attempts for a 78.6% rate.

John Tonje led the way with 32 points, hitting 4 of 10 from three and 8 of 15 overall, while also grabbing 7 rebounds. Jase Richardson added 21 points, knocking down 4 of 5 from deep and shooting 50% overall. Jeremy Fears Jr. contributed 14 points and 6 assists, shooting 62.5% from the field.

Wisconsin’s defense gave up 74 points in their last game, with the opposing team shooting 40% from the field on 24 of 59 attempts. Inside the arc, they allowed 42% shooting, as the other team went 17 for 40 on two-point shots.

From three-point range, Wisconsin’s opponents hit 7 of 19, shooting 36%. They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 24 times, where they converted 19 attempts, shooting 79%. Wisconsin allowed 8 offensive rebounds.

Michigan put up 81 points in their last game, shooting 47% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 51.5%. They hit 7 of 18 threes (38.9%) and were nearly perfect from the line, going 12 for 13 (92.3%). The Wolverines also grabbed 18 offensive rebounds and dished out 17 assists.

Derik Queen led the way with 31 points, hitting 2 of 4 from deep, while Vladislav Goldin added 25 points and 10 rebounds, making his only three-point attempt. Danny Wolf contributed 21 points and 14 boards, and Tre Donaldson chipped in 12 points and 9 assists.

Michigan’s defense gave up 80 points in this one, with their opponent shooting 44% from the field. They allowed 20 made two-pointers on 40 attempts, a 50% success rate.

From beyond the arc, Michigan’s opponent hit 7 of 21 threes, shooting 33%. They also sent them to the line 23 times, where they converted 19 free throws, an 82% clip.

Betting Trends

• In their last three road games, Wisconsin has averaged 79 points per game while allowing 70. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
• Through their last ten home games, Michigan has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 7-3 while averaging 73 points per game.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Wolverines have a strong straight up record of 3-2. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Badgers have a straight up record of 8-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 7-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

After finishing their regular season with a disappointing home loss, the Badgers have come out firing in the Big 10 tournament. Led by Jon Tonje, the Badgers have been knocking down 3’s at a high clip, and they are now the favorites to win the Big 10 tournament. As for the Wolverines, they just made it past Maryland last night, and will be looking to slow down a hot shooting Wisconsin squad. I think the Badgers continue to shoot well, and am taking them at -3.5.