Wisconsin vs. Illinois Betting Preview: ATS Pick and Prediction

Wisconsin Badgers (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS)

When: Tuesday, December 10th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: State Farm Center, IL, Champaign

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: WISC +6.5/ILL -6.5

Total: 154

Money Line: Wisconsin Badgers +228/-286

Notable Injuries

Badgers

• Camren Hunter (Questionable) Undisclosed

Fighting Illini

• Ty Rodgers (Out) Redshirt

Recent Form

Wisconsin Badgers Recent Game/Games

Wisconsin fell to 8-2 on the season after an 88-74 loss to Marquette on Saturday. The Badgers, who were +6.5 point underdogs, didn’t cover the spread in the road game. The total points for the game hit 162, going over the pre-game line of 150.

Wisconsin was leading 39-37 at halftime but struggled in the second half, scoring just 35 points while allowing Marquette to put up 51 points after the break.

Illinois Fighting Illini Recent Game/Games

Illinois dropped to 6-2 on the season after a 70-66 loss to Northwestern on Friday. The Illini, who were -3 favorites, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread.

Illinois led 27-24 at halftime but were outscored 32-29 in the second half. The game’s total points of 136 fell short of the O/U line of 143.

Analysis

Wisconsin’s offense put up 74 points in their last game, shooting 46.2% from the field and hitting 38.5% from three-point range (10/26). Their effective field goal percentage was 55.8%, and they were nearly perfect from the free-throw line, going 16/18 (88.9%).

Kam Jones led the way with 32 points and six assists, shooting 57.1% overall and 42.9% from deep. Max Klesmit added 22 points, hitting six threes at a 54.5% clip.

Wisconsin’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 88 points on 50% shooting from the field. They allowed their opponent to hit 63% of their two-point attempts, with 23 made shots inside the arc.

From three-point range, Wisconsin’s opponent shot 30%, making 8 of 26 attempts. The Badgers also sent them to the free-throw line 21 times, where they converted 18 free throws at an 85% clip. Wisconsin gave up 11 offensive rebounds in the game.

Illinois struggled offensively in their last game, shooting just 37.3% from the field and 26.5% from three-point range, finishing with 66 points. Their effective field goal percentage was 44.8%, and they hit 7 of 11 free throws (63.6%).

Nick Martinelli led the way with 27 points on 11/20 shooting, while Kasparas Jakucionis added 20 points, hitting 6 of 10 threes and dishing out seven assists. Brooks Barnhizer also contributed 17 points despite shooting 7/23 from the field.

Illinois held their opponent to 70 points, with a strong defensive effort that limited them to 38% shooting from the field. The Illini gave up 24 two-point baskets on 51 attempts, a 47% conversion rate.

From beyond the arc, Illinois’ defense was particularly effective, as they allowed just 4 made threes on 21 attempts, a 19% shooting performance. They also sent their opponent to the line 17 times, where they made ten free throws, shooting 58%.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Wisconsin has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 75 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• In their last five home games, Illinois has averaged 70 points per game while allowing 72. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• Through their last five games as the underdog, the Badgers have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight up mark of 3-2.
• Illinois has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

After a surprising start to their season, the Badgers have dropped two straight. However, these losses came to Michigan and Marquette (on the road). Now, they face another test, traveling to take on the Illini on the road. Right now, the spread sits at -6.5 in favor of Illinois. But I see this number coming down throughout the day. So, while it’s still at +6.5, I’m taking the Badgers to cover.