Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Total Pick | 1/10/24

Wisconsin Badgers (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-3 SU, 5-10 ATS)

When: Wednesday, January 10th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Value City Arena, OH, Columbus

TV: BTN

Point Spread: WISC +1.5/OHIOST -1.5

Total: 139.5

Money Line: Wisconsin Badgers +103/-125

Notable Injuries

Badgers

• Gus Yalden (Out) Personal

Buckeyes

• Owen Spencer (Out) Undisclosed
• Devin Royal (Questionable) Illness

Recent Form

Wisconsin has been much better at home this season, going 10-1 compared to 1-2 on the road. Their average scoring margin at home is +14.8, but it drops to -8.3 on the road. So far, they have been the underdog in five of their 14 games, going 3-2 in those matchups.

The Badgers are coming off an 88-72 win over Nebraska, and they have won four straight games. In Big Ten play, Wisconsin is a perfect 3-0, and they have gone 8-3 in non-conference action.

Today’s over/under line of 139.5 is in line with the average over/under line in Wisconsin’s games this season (137.1). On the year, the over/under record in their games is 7-6-1. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-0-1, while over their last five games, the over/under record is 4-0-1. So far this season, 8 of their games have finished with more points than today’s over/under line of 139.5.

Wisconsin has an ATS record of 8-6 this season, and they are 1-2 vs. the spread on the road. Over their last 10 road games, the Badgers are 4-6 vs. the spread.

Ohio State has been dominant at home this season, going 9-1, and they have won their last eight games in Columbus. For the season, the Buckeyes have a scoring margin of +15.4 points per game at home.

The Buckeyes are favored by 1.5 points today, and they have been the favorite in 14 of their 15 games this season. So far, Ohio State has gone 11-3 as the favorite.

Today’s over/under line of 139.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Ohio State’s games this season (143.4). So far, the over/under record in their games is 9-6. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1.

Ohio State has struggled against the spread this season, going just 5-10. They have gone 3-7 vs. the spread at home this year and are just 1-9 vs. the spread in their last 10 games as the favorite. Their last 3 home ATS record is 1-2.

The Historicals

The Buckeyes have had the better record vs the spread over the last 5 games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 5 points per game. Over the course of these games, they averaged 131 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

Analysis

The Wisconsin offense is coming off a game where they scored 88 points against Nebraska. They posted a field goal percentage of 55% and connected on 13 threes. Tyler Wahl led the team in scoring, putting up 17 points. Additionally, Chucky Hepburn contributed 13 points for the Badgers.

At present, the Badgers’ defense is nationally ranked 57th, allowing 65.9 points per game. In their most recent game, the Wisconsin defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as Nebraska knocked down 13 three-pointers on their way to 72 points.

Against Indiana, the Ohio State offense had a tough time putting up points scoring well below their season average of 78.1 points per game. They scored 65 points and posted a field goal percentage of 36.2% in the game. On the offensive front, the Buckeyes have a season-long field goal percentage of 45%, ranking 183rd nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 75th in terms of percentage and 104th in three-pointers made.

Coming into today’s game, the Ohio State defense is giving up an average of 65.8 points per contest. Against Indiana in their most recent game, the Ohio State defense gave up a total of 71 points while allowing Indiana to hit 46% of their shots.

Betting Trends

• Across their three previous road games, Wisconsin has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 67 points per game.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Buckeyes offense has averaged 72 points per game while allowing an average of 69. Ohio State posted an overall record of 6-4 while going 6-4 ATS.
• As the betting underdog, the Badgers have an ATS mark of just 5-5 in their last ten games. Wisconsin posted a straight-up mark of 4-6 in these matchups.
• Through their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Buckeyes have a good straight-up record, but their ATS mark is just 2-3.

Rich Crew’s Total Pick

Taking the UNDER 139.5 in the Wisconsin-Ohio State matchup seems prudent. Wisconsin is likely to dictate a slower pace and limit scoring chances. Their ability to guard the three-point line will be key against an Ohio State team that excels there. The Buckeyes’ solid field goal defense should further contribute to a low-scoring game, likely keeping Wisconsin’s scoring in the 60s. Expect a game focused on defense and controlled tempo, making the under a smart pick.