Wisconsin at Maryland: Fade the Public or Ride the Terps? Expert CBB Betting Analysis

Wisconsin Badgers (16-4 SU, 13-7 ATS) vs. Maryland Terrapins (16-5 SU, 10-11 ATS)

When: Wednesday, January 29th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: XFINITY Center, MD, College Park

TV: BTN

Point Spread: WISC +4.5/MARY -4.5

Total: 153.5

Money Line: Wisconsin Badgers +155/-190

Notable Injuries

Badgers

• Camren Hunter (Questionable) Undisclosed

Terrapins

• Jahari Long (Questionable) Knee
• Chance Stephens (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Braden Pierce (Out) Eye

Recent Form

Wisconsin Badgers Recent Game/Games

Wisconsin improved to 16-4 on the season with an 83-55 win over Nebraska on Sunday, January 26th. Playing at home, the Badgers entered the game as -7.5 favorites and covered the spread with ease.

After leading 40-28 at halftime, Wisconsin outscored Nebraska 43-27 in the 2nd half. The game’s total points reached 138, falling short of the 150.5 O/U line.

Maryland Terrapins Recent Game/Games

Maryland improved to 16-5 on the season with a 79-78 win over Indiana on Sunday. The Terrapins were -2.5 point favorites but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 157, surpassing the O/U line of 149.5.

Maryland led 38-37 at halftime and matched Indiana’s 41 points in the 2nd half to secure the win.

Analysis

Wisconsin’s offense put up 83 points in their last game, shooting 47.6% from the field and hitting 17 threes at a 45.9% clip. Their effective field goal percentage was 60.3%, and they added 18 assists.

John Tonje led the way with 27 points, knocking down five threes. John Blackwell contributed 14 points, hitting 4 of 7 from deep, while Kamari McGee was 3 for five from beyond the arc, finishing with 11 points in 18 minutes.

Despite Wisconsin’s defensive efforts, they couldn’t contain their opponent from beyond the arc, allowing 17 threes on 37 attempts for a 45% shooting performance. Overall, the Badgers gave up 55 points, with their opponent shooting 47% from the field.

Wisconsin sent their opponent to the free-throw line just 8 times, where they converted six attempts. The Badgers also limited second-chance opportunities, giving up only five offensive rebounds.

Maryland’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 79 points with a 49.2% field goal percentage. They were especially effective from beyond the arc, hitting 50% of their threes (12/24) and posting an effective field goal percentage of 59%.

Rodney Rice led the way with 23 points, shooting 61.5% overall and 71.4% from three (5/7). Ja’Kobi Gillespie added 18 points and nine assists, while Oumar Ballo and Julian Reese both recorded double-doubles with 10 rebounds each.

Maryland’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 78 points on 48% shooting from the field. They allowed their opponent to hit 51% of their two-point shots, with a 24/47 performance inside the arc.

From three-point range, Maryland’s opponent shot 41%, making 7 of 17 attempts. The Terrapins also sent them to the line 15 times, where they converted nine free throws for 60%. Maryland gave up 14 offensive rebounds as well.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Wisconsin has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 3-0. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1 while averaging 80 points per game.
• Through their last five home games, Maryland has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 2-3 while averaging 78 points per game.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Wisconsin has an ATS mark of 4-1 while going 2-3 straight up.
• Through their previous five contests as the betting favorite, the Terrapins have a strong record of 4-1. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 1-4.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Tonight is a huge matchup in the Big 10, as the Badgers and Terrapins each have six conference wins so far. Maryland only has one loss at home this season, and they are favored by -4.5. I think this is a back-and-forth game, but I think the Badgers actually win straight-up. I’m going wi