Villanova vs. Seton Hall Odds & Pick 1/1/22

Villanova Wildcats (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Seton Hall Pirates (9-2 SU, 6-4 ATS)
When: Saturday, January 1, 2 p.m.
Where: Prudential Center, Newark, N.J.
TV: FS1
Point Spread: NOVA -1/HALL +1 (BetOnline)
Moneyline: NOVA -115/HALL -105
Total: 134.5

Last Time Out:

Villanova handled Xavier 71-58; Seton Hall lost 70-65 to Providence

About the Matchup:

It’s prove-it time for Seton Hall, which has already slipped once against Providence and could either find itself in the thick of the race for the Big East title or falling by the wayside before it even gets a chance to establish itself in the conference. Seton Hall appears to have an opportunity in the Big East, as Villanova looks vulnerable, and Providence is probably going to lose a couple of times before all is said and done. But losing a home game to Villanova could put the Pirates behind the eight-ball before the season even gets through January’s first day, as road wins are never easy to come by in this league.

For Villanova, this is not a typical season by any means. The Wildcats are in a reloading phase, which has them showing some real cracks against some of the teams they’ve faced. On the one hand, Villanova has lost to Baylor, UCLA, and Purdue, none of which is a bad loss. On the other, they only scored 36 points against Baylor, and they lost by 20 points at Creighton in their league opener. So far, the Wildcats have been the height of inconsistent play. Some nights, they’re good enough to win the Big East. Other nights, they look like a team very much in transition.

Scouting the Wildcats:

One thing that is always true about facing Villanova is that when you beat one of Jay Wright’s teams, you earn it. The Wildcats, above all, do not beat themselves. They don’t make mistakes with the basketball, in large part because they believe in efficient possessions and scoring when they do have the ball. Villanova only turns it over 8.7 times per game, so mistakes are not likely to come.

What’s dangerous with facing Villanova is allowing the Wildcats to give shots to lesser players so that they can take advantage of other teams’ 3-point defense. The Wildcats all shoot it pretty well from outside, and if the defense is allowing the Wildcats to get good looks at the basket, they’re going to take advantage of the situation.

Scouting the Pirates:

When Jared Rhoden gets his shots, Seton Hall can beat anyone in the country. When Rhoden isn’t shooting it well, the Pirates can be sunk pretty easily. He didn’t shoot it well against Providence, resulting in a loss to the Friars despite him getting a double-double. Ten points just isn’t enough for a team that’s so dependent on one player to get the job done, and part of that was because Rhoden carried four fouls before all was said and done.

What Seton Hall really can’t do against Villanova is allow the Wildcats to get their noses in front because the Pirates are not really built to come from behind. Seton Hall is at its best when it can get the lead, play tight defense and score its points two at a time. The Pirates don’t shoot 3’s very well, but they are excellent on defense, which is why their losses have come when the opponent has managed to get into the 70s. If Seton Hall can’t slow the game down, it’s tough to see the Pirates winning.

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Villanova will Cover If: The Wildcats can take and make their 3-point shots. Villanova can really put Seton Hall in a tight spot if its shots are dropping, and they aren’t going to make the kinds of mistakes that keep them from shooting. They have to find the open space and hit shots.

Seton Hall will Cover If: The Pirates can defend the arc from start to finish. Seton Hall wants long rebounds to go its way so that its guards can take over the game. That means the Pirates’ effort starts with defense.

Dan’s Best Prop Bets

This game has me leaning to the Under. Villanova can undoubtedly score, but the Wildcats are likely to slow things down and accept a game played in the low 60s. It won’t be glamorous, but unless Villanova gets hot, it’s hard to see the teams getting close to the total.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Despite the record, Villanova is vulnerable to the right opponent, and I think Seton Hall defends well enough to keep the Wildcats from taking over. If the 3’s start dropping, there isn’t much the Pirates can do, but I think they’ll force Villanova into bad shots and give themselves a chance. Give me Seton Hall.