USC vs Maryland Betting Preview: Trojans’ Scoring Punch Makes Big Spread Look Juicy

USC Trojans (14-11 SU, 11-14 ATS) vs. Maryland Terrapins (20-6 SU, 13-12-1 ATS)

When: Thursday, February 20th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: XFINITY Center, MD, College Park

TV: FS1

Point Spread: USC +10.5/MARY -10.5

Total: 152.5

Money Line: USC Trojans +377/-502

Notable Injuries

Trojans

• Terrance Williams II (Out) Wrist
• Isaiah Elohim (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Kallai Patton (Questionable) Undisclosed

Terrapins

• Jahari Long (Questionable) Knee
• Chance Stephens (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Braden Pierce (Out) Eye

Recent Form

USC Trojans Recent Game/Games

The Trojans dropped to 14-11 on the season after a 69-66 home loss to Minnesota on Saturday. USC entered the game as -8 favorites but failed to cover the spread.

USC led 38-29 at halftime but were outscored 40-28 in the second half. The total points for the game were 135, just under the O/U line of 139.5.

Maryland Terrapins Recent Game/Games

Maryland improved to 20-6 on the season with a 101-75 win over Iowa on Sunday. The Terrapins, who were -11 favorites, covered the spread at home. The game’s total points reached 176, surpassing the over/under line of 163.5.

Maryland trailed 51-47 at halftime but dominated the 2nd half, outscoring Iowa 54-24 to secure the win.

Analysis

USC’s offense put up 66 points in their last game, shooting 42.9% from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 53.1%, thanks to hitting 9 of 16 from three-point range, good for 56.2%. At the free-throw line, they connected on 15 of 18 attempts, shooting 83.3%.

Lu’Cye Patterson led the Trojans with 25 points despite shooting just 37.5% overall. Wesley Yates III and Chibuzo Agbo each added 18 points, with Agbo hitting all 3 of his three-point attempts. Frank Mitchell contributed 15 points and grabbed 12 rebounds, shooting 77.8% from the field.

USC’s defense gave up 69 points, with the opposing team shooting 42% from the field, making 21 of 49 attempts. They held their opponents to 36% shooting on two-point attempts, with 12 makes on 33 tries.

From beyond the arc, the opposing team hit nine threes on 16 attempts, shooting 56%. USC also sent them to the line 18 times, where they made 15 free throws, shooting 83%. The Trojans allowed six offensive rebounds.

Maryland’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 101 points with a field goal percentage of 58.2% and an effective field goal percentage of 67.2%. They shot 65.9% from inside the arc and hit 46.2% of their threes, going 12-for-26 from deep. At the free-throw line, they connected on 84.6% of their attempts, making 11 of 13.

Ja’Kobi Gillespie led the way with 26 points, shooting 78.6% from the field and 57.1% from three, while also dishing out seven assists. Derik Queen added 18 points and 13 rebounds, and Rodney Rice contributed 18 points and four assists. Julian Reese also had a strong game, scoring 16 points on 77.8% shooting and grabbing 12 rebounds.

Maryland’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 75 points on 58% shooting from the field. They allowed 39 made field goals on 67 attempts.

Inside the arc, Maryland’s defense allowed 27 two-point baskets on 41 attempts, a 65% shooting rate. From three-point range, they gave up 12 threes on 26 attempts, with the opposing team shooting 46%.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, USC has an ATS record of 6-4 while averaging 74 per game. The team went 5-5 overall in these games.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Maryland has an ATS record of 4-6 while averaging 76 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Trojans have a straight-up record of 4-6. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Terrapins have a straight-up record of 5-0 while going 2-2-1 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Where USC really struggles is slowing opponents down inside, and Maryland is clearly the better defensive unit. However, USC is able to put up points, and I think the spread of +10.5 is way too high. I think USC can hang around in this one, and I see there being a lot of value in taking them to cover.