UNC vs. Duke: Joe’s CBB Best Bet and Betting Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels (13-9 SU, 7-14-1 ATS) vs. Duke Blue Devils (18-2 SU, 12-8 ATS)

When: Saturday, February 1st, 6:30 PM (ET)

Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, NC, Durham

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: NCAR +13/DUKE -13

Total: 148.5

Money Line: North Carolina Tar Heels +635/-1112

Notable Injuries

Tar Heels

• Jalen Washington (Questionable) Knee

Blue Devils

• Maliq Brown (Questionable) Knee

Recent Form

North Carolina Tar Heels Recent Game/Games

North Carolina’s season record dropped to 13-9 after a 73-65 road loss to Pittsburgh on Tuesday. The Tar Heels, who were +2.5 point underdogs, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 138 fell short of the 153.5 over/under line.

UNC led 44-42 at halftime but struggled in the second half, scoring just 21 points while allowing 31 to the Panthers.

Duke Blue Devils Recent Game/Games

Duke improved to 18-2 on the season with a 74-64 win over NC State on Monday. Playing at home, the Blue Devils were -21.5 favorites but didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total points ended at 138, just over the 134.5 O/U line.

After trailing 37-33 at halftime, Duke turned things around in the 2nd half, outscoring NC State 41-27 to secure the win.

Analysis

North Carolina put up 65 points in their last game, shooting 44.1% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 50.8%. They hit 54.3% of their two-point attempts but struggled from beyond the arc, connecting on just 29.2% of their threes (7/24).

Jaland Lowe led the way with 18 points and seven assists, shooting 3/6 from three. RJ Davis also hit 3/6 from deep, finishing with 16 points and five assists. Zack Austin contributed 15 points, hitting 3/5 from three, while Cameron Corhen was efficient inside, shooting 5/6 from the field.

North Carolina’s defense gave up 73 points in their last game, with the opposing team shooting 42% from the field on 24 of 56 attempts. The Tar Heels allowed 15 two-point baskets on 30 attempts, a 50% shooting rate.

From beyond the arc, the opposition hit 9 of 26 threes, shooting 34%. North Carolina also sent them to the free-throw line 20 times, where they converted 16 for 80%. The Tar Heels gave up six offensive rebounds.

Duke’s offense managed 74 points in their last game despite shooting just 39% from the field and 20% from three-point range, hitting only 4 of 20 attempts from deep. Their effective field goal percentage was 42.4%, but they made up for it at the free-throw line, hitting 24 of 28 attempts for 85.7%.

Cooper Flagg led the way with 28 points and seven rebounds, shooting 47.1% overall. Kon Knueppel added 19 points, though he struggled from the field, shooting 33.3% and 30% from three. Dontrez Styles was a bright spot from beyond the arc, hitting 4 of 6 threes and finishing with 18 points.

Duke’s defense held their opponent to 64 points on 39% shooting from the field. They allowed 19 two-point field goals on 39 attempts, a 48% shooting rate.

From beyond the arc, Duke limited their opponent to just four made threes on 20 attempts, a 20% shooting performance. Their opponent also shot 85% from the free-throw line, making 24 of 28 attempts. Duke gave up 15 offensive rebounds in the game.

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road contests, the Tar Heels offense has averaged 67 points per game while allowing an average of 71. North Carolina posted an overall record of 2-3 while going 0-4-1 ATS.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Blue Devils offense has averaged 76 points per game while allowing an average of 61. Duke posted an overall record of 9-1 while going 8-2 ATS.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Tar Heels have a straight-up record of 0-3. Their record vs. the spread in these games was 0-2-1.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Blue Devils have a straight-up record of 5-0 while going 2-3 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This UNC vs Duke matchup doesn’t quite have the excitement it has in recent years, as the Tar Heels are having a down year. Despite this, anytime these two schools get together, it’s worth watching. Duke is favored by -13 at this time, but even with their poor overall record, the Tar Heels tend to keep things close. Earlier this year, they lost by just 3 to Michigan State and 6 to Florida. I like North Carolina to cover the spread at +13.