UCLA vs. USC Prediction, Picks & Betting Preview (1/27/24)

UCLA Bruins (14-6 SU, 10-9-1 ATS) vs. USC Trojans (12-7 SU, 8-11 ATS)

When: Monday, January 27th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Galen Center, CA, Los Angeles

TV: FS1

Point Spread: UCLA -1.5/USC +1.5

Total: 140.5

Money Line: UCLA Bruins -115/-107

Notable Injuries

Bruins

• Tyler Bilodeau (Questionable) Ankle
• Evan Manjikian (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Brandon Williams (Out) Redshirt
• Devin Williams (Out) Redshirt
• Christian Horry (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Eric Freeny (Out) Redshirt

Trojans

• Terrance Williams II (Out) Wrist
• Matt Knowling (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Kallai Patton (Questionable) Undisclosed

Recent Form

UCLA improved to 14-6 on the season with a 65-60 road win over Washington on Friday, January 24th. The Bruins entered the game as 5-point favorites, and the final score resulted in a push against the spread. The total points for the game were 125, falling short of the O/U line of 138.5.

UCLA led 36-32 at halftime and maintained their lead by outscoring Washington 29-28 in the 2nd half.

USC Trojans Recent Game/Games

USC improved to 12-7 on the season with a 78-73 road win over Nebraska on Wednesday. Entering the game as +7 underdogs, the Trojans not only pulled off the upset but also covered the spread.

USC trailed 33-31 at halftime but turned things around by scoring 47 points in the second half while allowing 40. The game’s total points of 151 exceeded the O/U line of 144.5.

Analysis

In their last game, UCLA’s offense put up 65 points, shooting 41.1% from the field. They connected on 52.9% of their three-point attempts, hitting 9 of 17 from deep, while struggling inside the arc, shooting just 35.9% on two-point shots.

The Bruins had 10 offensive rebounds and 10 assists, with Great Osobor leading the way with 19 points and nine rebounds. Skyy Clark and Aday Mara each added 12 points, with Clark hitting 3 of 5 from three-point range.

UCLA’s defense held their opponent to 60 points, allowing them to shoot 41% from the field. They gave up 17 two-point baskets on 31 attempts, a 54% conversion rate.

From beyond the arc, UCLA limited their opponent to 5 made threes on 22 attempts, just 22% shooting. They also sent them to the free-throw line 15 times, where they made 11, a 73% rate. UCLA allowed nine offensive rebounds.

USC put up 78 points in their last game, shooting 44.3% from the field and 28.6% from beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage was 49.2%, with a strong 52.5% shooting inside the arc. They also hit 81.8% of their free throws, going 18-for-22 from the line.

Juwan Gary led the way with 27 points, shooting 57.9% from the field despite missing all 5 of his three-point attempts. Desmond Claude added 21 points and six assists, while Rashaun Agee contributed 14 points and eight rebounds, hitting 4 of 6 threes.

USC’s defense struggled inside, giving up 73 points while allowing the opposing team to shoot 49% from the field. The Trojans had particular trouble with two-point shots, where their opponents connected on 71% of their attempts, going 22/31.

From beyond the arc, USC’s defense held their opponents to just 5/24 shooting or 20%. However, they sent them to the free-throw line 17 times, where they converted 14 free throws at an 82% rate. USC also gave up six offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Across the Bruins last ten road games, the team averaged 64 points per game while allowing 68. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 4-5-1 while going 4-6 straight-up.
• In their last three home games, USC has averaged 76 points per game while allowing 75. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• The Trojans have played well in their last five games as the betting underdog, going 3-2 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.
• Against the spread, the Bruins have put together of 1-3-1 in their last five games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 3-2 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Both USC and UCLA have been working through this Big 10 schedule, and UCLA head coach Mike Cronin has been vocal about the impact off all the cross-country travel. But even though they are on the road tonight, they don’t have to go anywhere as they take on USC. Currently, UCLA is favored by -1.5, and I think they are playing really well right now. Look for them to pick up a win and cover the spread vs. USC.