UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Predictions & Pick

UCLA Bruins (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS)

When: Saturday, December 28th, 4:00 PM (ET)

Where: Intuit Dome, CA, Inglewood

TV: FOX

Point Spread: UCLA +4.5/GNZG -4.5

Total: 148.5

Money Line: UCLA Bruins +158/-192

Notable Injuries

Bruins

• Evan Manjikian (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Devin Williams (Out) Redshirt
• Christian Horry (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Eric Freeny (Out) Redshirt

Bulldogs

• Steele Venters (Out) Achilles
• Braeden Smith (Out) Redshirt

Recent Form

UCLA’s season record fell to 10-2 after a 76-74 home loss to North Carolina on Saturday. The Bruins, who were -1.5 favorites, failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 150 narrowly exceeded the over/under line of 149.5.

UCLA led 40-32 at halftime but allowed 44 points in the second half while scoring 34. This defensive lapse was a key factor in their loss.

Gonzaga improved to 9-3 on the season with an 86-65 win over Bucknell on Saturday. The Bulldogs were heavy favorites at -34 but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 151, falling short of the 154.5 O/U line.

Gonzaga led 38-27 at halftime and picked up the pace in the 2nd half, scoring 48 points while allowing 38.

Analysis

UCLA’s offense put up 74 points in their last game, shooting 49.1% from the field and hitting 50% of their threes, going 9-for-18 from beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage was 56.6%, though they struggled at the free-throw line, making just 59.1% of their attempts, finishing 13-for-22.

Tyler Bilodeau led the way, scoring 26 points in 24 minutes, shooting 9-for-14 overall and 5-for-6 from three. Ian Jackson added 24 points, hitting three threes, while Sebastian Mack contributed 22 points, making 3 of his four attempts from deep.

UCLA’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 76 points on 49% shooting from the field. The Bruins allowed their opponent to connect on 17 of 35 two-point attempts, a 48% success rate.

From beyond the arc, UCLA’s defense couldn’t contain the three-point shooters, who hit 9 of 18 threes, shooting 50%. They also sent the opposing team to the free-throw line 22 times, where they made 13 free throws, shooting 59%. UCLA allowed seven offensive rebounds.

Gonzaga put up 86 points in their last game, shooting 47.9% from the field and 34.3% from beyond the arc, hitting 12 threes. Their effective field goal percentage was 56.3%, and they connected on 61.1% of their two-point attempts.

Graham Ike led the way with 25 points and 10 rebounds in just 20 minutes, shooting 73.3% from the field. The Bulldogs dished out 21 assists, with Nolan Hickman and Josh Bascoe each contributing three assists and 14 points.

Despite Gonzaga’s defense giving up 65 points, they allowed their opponent to shoot 47% from the field, including 61% on two-point attempts (22/36). The Bulldogs also gave up 12 three-pointers on 35 attempts, a 34% shooting rate.

From the free-throw line, Gonzaga’s opponent shot 66%, making 6 of 9 attempts. The Bulldogs also allowed 10 offensive rebounds in the game.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, UCLA has an ATS record of 6-3-1 while averaging 68 per game. The team went 5-5 overall in these games.
• Across the Bulldogs’ last ten home games, the team averaged 78 points per game while allowing 70. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 5-5 while going 6-4 straight-up.
• The Bruins have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread.
• Through their previous five contests as the betting favorite, the Bulldogs have a strong record of 3-2. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 1-4.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This UCLA vs Gonzaga matchup is the premier game on Saturday’s CBB slate, and the Bulldogs are favored by -4.5 over UCLA. Although the Bruins are a good defensive unit, I see them really struggling versus one of the best-scoring offenses across the country. I think getting Gonzaga at -4.5 is a steal, and I’m taking them to cover in Saturday afternoon’s showdown.