Texas Longhorns vs. Xavier Musketeers: NCAA Tournament Play-In Betting Preview and Prediction

Texas Longhorns (19-15 SU, 16-18 ATS) vs. Xavier Musketeers (21-11 SU, 18-14 ATS)

When: Wednesday, March 19th, 9:10 PM (ET)

Where: UD Arena, OH, Dayton

TV: truT

Point Spread: TX +3/XAV -3

Total: 149.5

Money Line: Texas Longhorns +133/-162

Notable Injuries

Longhorns

Musketeers

• Lassina Traore (Out) Knee
• Roddie Anderson III (Out) Redshirt
• Trey Green (Out) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Texas Longhorns Recent Game/Games

Texas fell to 19-15 on the season after an 83-72 loss to Tennessee on Friday. The Longhorns were +10 underdogs going into the game and didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 155, surpassing the O/U line of 137.5.

Texas trailed 41-38 at halftime and couldn’t close the gap in the 2nd half, scoring 34 points while allowing 42.

Xavier Musketeers Recent Game/Games

Xavier’s season record dropped to 21-11 after a narrow 89-87 loss to Marquette on Thursday. The Musketeers were +2.5 point underdogs going into the game and managed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 176, surpassing the over/under line of 145.5.

Xavier had a strong start, leading 46-36 at halftime, but struggled defensively in the second half, allowing 53 points while scoring 41. They’ll need to tighten up their defense moving forward.

Analysis

Texas put up 72 points in their last game, shooting 46.3% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 50%. They struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 4 of 16 attempts (25%), but found success inside, shooting 55.3% on two-point attempts. At the free-throw line, the Longhorns were efficient, connecting on 18 of 21 shots (85.7%).

Chaz Lanier led the way with 23 points, shooting 60% overall and 40% from three. Zakai Zeigler added 19 points, hitting 75% of his shots and dishing out six assists. Kadin Shedrick was perfect from the field, going 5 for 5, while Jahmai Mashack and Igor Miličić Jr. each contributed seven rebounds.

Despite holding their opponent to just 5 made threes on 20 attempts, the Texas Longhorns gave up 83 points, allowing a 50% shooting performance overall. Most of the damage came from inside the arc, where their opponent shot 64% on two-point attempts, hitting 22 of 34.

Texas also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 35 times, where they converted 24 free throws at a 68% rate. The Longhorns struggled on the boards, giving up 15 offensive rebounds.

Xavier’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 87 points on 52.6% shooting from the field. They connected on 47.8% of their three-point attempts, hitting 11 of 23 shots from deep, and were efficient at the free-throw line, making 16 of 19 attempts for an 84.2% success rate.

Ryan Conwell led the way for the Musketeers, scoring 38 points on 13 of 18 shooting, including 7 of 11 from beyond the arc. Kam Jones also had a big game, finishing with 28 points and five assists while hitting 5 of 10 three-point attempts.

Xavier’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 89 points on 52% shooting from the field. They allowed their opponents to hit 55% of their two-point attempts, going 19/34 inside the arc.

From three-point range, Xavier’s opponents shot 47%, connecting on 11 of 23 attempts. They also sent them to the free-throw line 19 times, where they made 16 free throws, shooting 84%.

Betting Trends

• Texas has played well in their previous five road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 82 points per game while allowing 82. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Across their ten previous home games, Xavier has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 5-5 while averaging 75 points per game.
• The last ten games that Texas was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 4-6 straight up.
• Through their last five games as the favorite, the Musketeers have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight up mark of 5-0.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

We have a pair of big-name programs fighting for a chance to make the field of 64, with Xavier being favored by -3 over Texas. This should be a heavily pro-Xavier crowd, and even though they lost to Marquette in the Big East tournament, they very easily could have pulled off the upset in that game. Even though both Xavier and Texas don’t rely heavily on the three-point shot, the Musketeers are the better shooting team from outside. I like Xavier to cover at -3.