Texas Longhorns vs. TCU Horned Frogs: College Basketball Betting Preview

Texas Longhorns (22-7 SU, 12-17 ATS) at TCU Horned Frogs (19-10, 15-13), 3/1/23
When: 9 pm ET Wednesday, March 1
Where: Schollmaier Arena
TV: ESPN2
CBB Betting Line: Tex +2.5/TCU -2.5
Over/under: 149.5

Texas still thinks it’s got a shot to win the Big 12 regular-season title, but it’ll need to win out, starting with a tussle with Texas Christian Wednesday night in Fort Worth.

Who do we like here with our free Texas/TCU pick?

College Basketball Betting Odds

Wednesday’s CBB betting lines opened Texas Christian as a two-point home favorite over Texas, with an over/under of right around 150. Early betting action then edged the Frogs to -2.5.

According to Sagarin’s CBB ratings at USAToday.com, TCU should only be favored by one point for this match-up.

Texas-TCU College Basketball Betting Preview

The Longhorns are 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS over their last six games after falling at Baylor last Saturday 81-72. Texas actually jumped out to an 18-4 lead minutes into the game but went cold and trailed 29-27 at the half. The ‘Horns then tied the game at 31 early in the second half but faded from there, later trailed by 18 and whiffed ATS as four-point dogs.

Texas allowed the Bears to shoot 50 percent from the floor Saturday and got out-rebounded 37-25.

Twos games ago, the Longhorns beat Iowa State 72-54 and covered as seven-point chalk. Three games ago, they needed overtime to beat the last-place team in the Big 12 Oklahoma, and came up short ATS at -10.

At 11-5 in conference play, Texas trails first-place Kansas by a game and a half in the Big 12, with a game against the Jayhawks coming up Saturday in Austin. And at 22-7 overall, the ‘Horns are shoo-ins to make the NCAA tournament.

Meanwhile, TCU is 2-1 in both SU and ATS over its last three games after winning at Texas Tech Saturday 83-82. The Frogs fell behind to the Red Raiders 5-0 out of the gate but rallied to lead 44-35 at the half. TCU pushed its advantage to 12 with seven minutes left, fell down by a point in the last minute but won it with a couple of free throws with four seconds remaining.

The Horned Frogs shot 49 percent from the floor Saturday, although they also allowed Texas Tech to shoot 50 percent. More importantly, TCU won the turnover battle 19-12.

Two games ago, the Frogs lost to Kansas 63-58. Three games ago, they beat Oklahoma State by 25 points. But just before that, they lost four in a row.

At 19-10 overall and 8-8 in Big 12 play, TCU is still probably a shoo-in to make the Big Dance.

Texas-TCU Recent History

The Longhorns are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS over the last nine meetings with the Horned Frogs. Back in January, Texas took the first meeting between these teams this season 79-75 in Austin but couldn’t quite cover at -6, favored by a bucket too much.

The ‘Horns trailed that game by 13 at halftime but came back to win it late.

Also, that game played over a total of 144 as the teams combined to shoot 49 percent from the floor.

Totals Report

The Overs are 16-11 in Longhorns games this season which are averaging 148 total points.

The Overs are 16-13 in Frogs games this season, which are averaging 144 points.

The Overs are 4-1 over the last five meetings between these teams.

Free College Basketball Betting Pick

By many metrics, these two teams are really close. In our minds, despite the loss to Baylor, Texas is just going a little better as of late than TCU. And that loss to the Bears last time out just makes the Longhorns good candidates to bounce back here. Finally, Texas already beat the Frogs once this season. We like the Longhorns in this spot.