Tennessee vs. Houston Predictions: Joe’s ATS Pick & Defensive Analysis

Tennessee Volunteers (33-12 SU, 23-21-1 ATS) vs. Houston Cougars (42-4 SU, 26-19-1 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 30th, 2:20 PM (ET)

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, IN, Indianapolis

TV: CBS

Point Spread: TENN +3/HOU -3

Total: 123.5

Money Line: Tennessee Volunteers +134/-161

Notable Injuries

Volunteers

• J.P. Estrella (Out) Foot

Cougars

• Mylik Wilson (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Ramon Walker Jr. (Out) Hand
• Jacob McFarland (Out) Leg

Recent Form

Tennessee Volunteers Recent Game/Games

The Volunteers dropped to 33-12 on the season after an 86-77 road loss to Florida on Sunday, March 16th. Tennessee entered the game as +5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread.

After trailing 39-30 at halftime, Tennessee scored 47 points in the 2nd half but couldn’t close the gap as they allowed 47 points to Florida in the same period. The game’s total points of 163 exceeded the O/U line of 142.5.

Houston Cougars Recent Game/Games

Houston improved to 42-4 on the season with a 72-64 win over Arizona on Saturday, March 15th. The Cougars, who were -5.5 favorites, covered the spread in the home victory. The total points for the game were 136, just under the O/U line of 138.

After trailing 33-28 at halftime, Houston turned things around by scoring 44 points in the 2nd half while holding Arizona to 31 points.

Analysis

In their last game, Tennessee’s offense put up 77 points, shooting 44.9% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 53.1%. They connected on 60.9% of their two-point attempts while hitting just 30.8% from beyond the arc, going 8-for-26 from three-point range. At the free-throw line, the Volunteers were solid, making 78.1% of their attempts, finishing 25-for-32.

Zakai Zeigler was a standout for Tennessee, hitting 4-of-7 threes and finishing with 23 points and eight assists. Jordan Gainey led the team with 24 points despite shooting just 2-of-8 from three. Walter Clayton Jr. also added 22 points, knocking down 4-of-11 from deep, while Alex Condon contributed nine rebounds to go along with his 13 points.

Despite Tennessee’s defensive efforts, they allowed 86 points in their previous game. The Volunteers saw their opponents shoot 42% from the field, with a 50% success rate on two-point attempts, hitting 17 of 34 shots.

From beyond the arc, Tennessee’s defense gave up nine three-pointers on 27 attempts, a 33% shooting performance. They also sent their opponents to the free-throw line 28 times, where they converted 25 free throws, shooting 89%. Tennessee allowed 15 offensive rebounds in the game.

Houston put up 72 points in their last game, shooting 42.6% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 49.2%. They hit 9 of 23 threes, connecting at 39.1%, and were nearly perfect from the free-throw line, making 11 of 12 attempts (91.7%).

Milos Uzan led the way with 25 points, shooting 4 of 6 from deep and 8 of 16 overall. Caleb Love added 19 points, though he struggled from three, hitting just 2 of 9 attempts. Emanuel Sharp contributed 17 points, going 3 of 9 from beyond the arc.

Houston’s defense gave up 64 points in their last game, with their opponents shooting 42% from the field on 26 of 61 attempts. Inside the arc, they allowed 17 two-point baskets on 38 tries, a 44% shooting rate.

From three-point range, the Cougars’ opponents hit 9 of 23 shots, good for 39%. They also went to the free-throw line 12 times, making 11 for a 91% success rate. Houston allowed nine offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• In their last five games away from home, the Volunteers have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 73 points per game in these contests.
• Across the Cougars’ last ten home games, the team averaged 71 points per game while allowing 61. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 7-3, while going 10-0 straight-up.
• Tennessee has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.
• The Cougars have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The spread for this one is sitting at -3 in favor of Houston, as they take on the two seed in their region, the Tennessee Volunteers. I see Houston’s athleticism and defensive play being an issue for the Volunteers. I think there’s a lot of value in taking the Cougars to not only win but cover.