TCU vs. Arizona Free Point Spread Pick

by | Last updated Mar 20, 2022 | cbb

Mike Miles TCU

TCU Horned Frogs (21-12 SU, 19-11-3 ATS) vs. Arizona Wildcats (32-3 SU, 19-14-2 ATS)
When: Sunday March 20 2022, 9:40 PM PM (ET)
Where: Viejas Arena

Point Spread: TCU +10.5/Arizona -10.5 (BAS)
Total: 142.5
Money Line: Horned Frogs +354/Arizona -467

Key Injuries

TCU Maxwell Evans: Undisclosed (OUT)

Arizona Kerr Kriisa: Ankle (QUESTIONABLE)

Recent Form

The TCU Horned Frogs come into this matchup with an overall record of 21-12. On the season, the Horned Frogs have performed well in their 13 non-conference games, posting a record of 12-1. In addition to their strong non-conference record, TCU have played well on neutral courts. Through 7 games, the Horned Frogs are 5-2. In their past 5 contests, the team has gone just 2-3.

The Arizona Wildcats get set to host the Horned Frogs with an overall record of 32-3. On the season, the Wildcats have performed well in their 12 non-conference games, posting a record of 11-1. In addition to their strong non-conference record, Arizona have a good record at neutral sites. Through 6 games, the Wildcats are 6-0. Heading into this matchup, the Wildcats are looking to pick up their 8 straight win.

For the season, the TCU Horned Frogs are averaging 68.1 points per game, good for a rank of 236th in the NCAA. On defense, the team is giving up 64.3 points per contest (31st). On the other side, the Arizona Wildcats are the 3rd ranked scoring offense, averaging 84.6 points per game, while scoring 67.6 per contest.

Efficiency Outlook

Arizona enters this matchup vs TCU, having played 35 games as the more efficient offense and defensive team. In these contests, they have posted a record of 32-3. Through 35 games, the Wildcats are averaging 79.0 points per 70.0 possessions (NCAA Average), compared to 69.0 for the Wildcats. In these situations, Arizona has an average scoring margin of 17.0 points. On the other side, the Horned Frogs are 10-9 as the inferior team on both ends of the court. In these 19 instances, they hold an average scoring margin of -2.0.

I Don’t expect this game to be heavily dictated by three-point shooting, as both the Horned Frogs and Wildcats are near the bottom of the NCAA in percentage of points from beyond the arc. So far, 24.3% of TCU’s points are coming from three-point shots. The same goes for Arizona, at 27.9%.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Horned Frogs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Horned Frogs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
  • Wildcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games.

Joe’s Against the Spread Pick

The Wildcats are now my current pick to win it all. They’re extremely balanced and have a couple of budding superstars in Koloko and Mathurin. It’s not a question of will they win, it’s “by how many”. And that answer is 15+!

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