Tar Heels vs. Fighting Irish: Can UNC Cover on the Road? (Jan 4th)

North Carolina Tar Heels (8-6 SU, 5-9 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-6 SU, 5-6-2 ATS)

When: Saturday, January 4th, 12:00 PM (ET)

Where: Purcell Pavilion, IN, South Bend

TV: CBS

Point Spread: NCAR -4.5/ND +4.5

Total: 155.5

Money Line: North Carolina Tar Heels -202/+165

Notable Injuries

Tar Heels

• Seth Trimble (Questionable) Upper Body

Fighting Irish

• Markus Burton (Out) Knee

Recent Form

North Carolina’s season record dropped to 8-6 after an 83-70 loss to Louisville on Wednesday. The Tar Heels were +1.5 point underdogs going into the game and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 153, falling short of the 164.5 O/U line.

North Carolina trailed 37-31 at halftime and couldn’t turn things around in the second half, where they were outscored 46-39.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Recent Game/Games

The Fighting Irish fell to 7-6 on the season after an 86-75 loss to Georgia Tech on Tuesday. Notre Dame entered the game as +1.5 point underdogs and didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 161, surpassing the O/U line of 142.5.

Notre Dame struggled early, trailing 43-24 at halftime. They scored 51 points in the 2nd half but allowed 43, making it difficult to mount a comeback.

Analysis

North Carolina’s offense put up 70 points in their last game, shooting 40% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc, hitting just 4 of 16 three-point attempts. Their effective field goal percentage was 43.3%, and they connected on 78.3% of their free throws, going 18 for 23 from the line.

Chucky Hepburn led the way with 26 points and seven assists, shooting 62.5% overall. Ian Jackson added 23 points, hitting 2 of 5 from three, while Reyne Smith knocked down four threes on 40% shooting from deep, finishing with 17 points.

Even with North Carolina holding their opponent to just 23% shooting from beyond the arc, the Tar Heels still gave up 83 points. Their defense struggled inside, allowing 62% shooting on two-pointers.

North Carolina also sent their opponent to the line 39 times, where they hit 25 free throws. The Tar Heels allowed 10 offensive rebounds in the game.

Notre Dame put up 75 points in their latest game, shooting 43.5% from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 51.6%, helped by hitting 42.9% from three-point range (9/21). At the free-throw line, they were 85.7%, making 12 of 14 attempts.

Tae Davis led the way with 27 points and seven rebounds, shooting 56.2% overall. Javian McCollum and Duncan Powell each added 21 points, with McCollum dishing out six assists. Matt Allocco also contributed seven assists, finishing with 15 points.

Notre Dame’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 86 points on 56% shooting from the field. The opposing team found success inside, hitting 66% of their two-point attempts (22/33).

From beyond the arc, Notre Dame allowed eight threes on 20 attempts, a 40% shooting performance. They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 25 times, where they made 18 (72%).

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, North Carolina has averaged 81 points per game while allowing 79. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 4-1 vs. the spread.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Notre Dame has an ATS record of 5-5 while averaging 65 per game. The team went 2-8 overall in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Fighting Irish have a straight-up record of 0-3. Their record vs. the spread in these games was 1-2.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Tar Heels have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 1-4 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Heading into Saturday’s Notre Dame vs North Carolina matchup, the Tar Heels are favored by -4.5 points on the road. I could easily see UNC running away with this one early and creating some distance from Notre Dame. I’m taking the Tar Heels at -4.5.