St. John’s Red Storm vs. Xavier Musketeers Expert Pick 1/31/24

St. John’s Red Storm (13-7 SU, 11-8 ATS) vs. Xavier Musketeers (10-10 SU, 12-7-1 ATS)

When: Wednesday, January 31st, 6:30 PM (ET)

Where: Cintas Center, OH, Cincinnati

TV: FS1

Point Spread: STJ +1.5/XAV -1.5 (Did you know that you can bet on games at -105 odds at BAS?)

Total: 155.5

Money Line: Red Storm +103/Musketeers -125

Notable Injuries

Red Storm

• Nahiem Alleyne (Out) Ankle

Musketeers

• Jerome Hunter (Out) Heart
• Zach Freemantle (Out) Foot

Recent Form

St. John’s will be the underdog in this game, as they have gone 2-3 in their five games as the underdog this season. On the road, St. John’s has gone 4-4 this season, and they come in with a road average scoring margin of +1.0 points per game.

St. John’s is 13-7 overall this season, and they are 5-3 in Big East games. Their last game was a 70-50 win over Villanova.

St. John’s over/under record for the season is 10-9, and today’s line of 155.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (148.9). So far, 12 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 136 points, and their over/under record during this stretch is 0-2.

As the underdog, St. John’s has been strong vs. the spread this season, going 4-1. Their overall ATS record is 11-8. On the road, the Red Storm are 5-3 vs. the spread and have gone 6-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.

After a 99-56 loss to Connecticut, Xavier is 10-10 on the season and 4-5 in the Big East. The Musketeers are 8-4 at home this season, and they are favored by 1.5 points today, which is their 11th time being favored this season.

Over their last 10 games at home, Xavier has gone 6-4, and they are 2-1 in their last three games at home. As the favorite, the Musketeers are 8-3 this season, while they are 2-7 as the underdog.

The over/under record for Xavier games this season is 11-9, and today’s line of 155.5 is higher than the average OU line in their games (147.8). So far, 14 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s OU line. However, the average scoring total in their last three games is 166 points, and their over/under record in their last three games is 3-0.

As the favorite this season, Xavier has gone 6-5 vs. the spread. At home, their ATS mark is 7-4-1, and over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Musketeers have gone 6-4.

Analysis

The St. John’s offense is coming off a game where they scored 70 points against Villanova. They posted a field goal percentage of 46.7% and connected on 5 threes. The team’s top scorer is Joel Soriano, who comes into today’s matchup with an average of 16.4, while Daniss Jenkins also maintains a PPG average of 13.1 leading up to the game.

Currently, the Red Storm’s defense holds the 113rd rank in the nation, allowing 69.6 points per game. The St. John’s defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 50 points and allowed Villanova to connect on 5 threes.

The Xavier offense, in their latest game, managed to score just 56 points versus Connecticut. During the game, they attempted 18 three-point shots and had a field goal percentage of 34.4%. Leading the team in scoring was Dayvion McKnight with 18 points. Quincy Olivari also added 14 points for the Musketeers.

Xavier’s defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 73.0 points per game. Against Connecticut, the Musketeers’ defense gave up 99 points and did a good job not fouling. For the game, Connecticut only made 6 free-throws.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, St. John’s has a 3-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-4, while averaging 71 points per game.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Xavier has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 70 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Red Storm have a strong record vs the spread going 4-1. Their straight up mark in these contests is 2-3.
• As the betting favorite, the Musketeers have an ATS record of 4-1 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 5-0.

Rich Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Musketeers are a really solid team at home, winning three of their four conference games. The lone loss was to UConn by five and while St. Johns is a good road team they’re certainly not in that class. Take Xavier -1.5.