South Florida (8-21 SU, 8-16-1 ATS) at Memphis (18-11 SU, 13-13 ATS)
AAC Conference
Date/Time: Thursday, March 1, 2018, at 9:00 PM ET
Where: FedExForum
TV: ESPNU
by Rich Crew, Expert NCAA Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: USF +13.5 / MEM -13.5
Over/Under Total: 134
The South Florida Bulls head to the FedExForum (home of the Memphis Grizzlies) to take on the Memphis Tigers in an Athletic Conference match. The NCAA basketball board lists Memphis as a massive -13.5 favorite on the point spread line with the total offered at 134.
In their latest South Florida trailed throughout in a 79 -69 home loss to Tulane. The defeat was the eighth consecutive for the Bulls with all coming in conference play. The oddsmaker has been overvaluing South Florida making a fade a strong bet over that stretch of games with their 2-6 against the spread in the last eight matches. Scoring has been an issue averaging 59.44 in AAC games this season although they did have marginal gains in their previous two surpassing 60 points in two straight.
Memphis comes into this game in top form not only putting together a nice four-game win streak but also padding their backers’ bankrolls in the quartet of games. The improved results are attributed to their offense which has put up 78 points per game in their last four. Betting wise the Tigers caught the linemaker and the public off guard winning all four in the underdog role.
This game will be the second meeting of the season for these two clubs. In the first meeting, Memphis was the superior team winning by twelve 86-24 as a nine-point road favorite. The 160 points made a mockery of the 128 total line for the third OVER in the last four in this series. The Tigers have won nine of the last ten contests and as noted got the money in the latest, but failed to cover the spread in four straight before that game.
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The scoring offense of Memphis stands out here outscoring USF by just under nine points per game overall and by 11.5 PPG in conference games. The scoring defense of both clubs is closer with South Florida giving up 75.69 PPG compared to Memphis 72.44. In all the metrics I examined the only edge the Bulls have is in free throw shooting and arguably a better bench.
This selection is an easy call for me. Most betting shops posted a 128 total line in the earlier meeting, and they missed the mark with the final score beating that number 32 points. Memphis Guard Jeremiah Martin lead the way in that match scoring a game-high 25 points, and he’s since been lost for the season. That’s a significant loss for the Tigers, but the team has adjusted and is coming off two of their highest regulation scoring games. I think that the sportsbooks are overweighting Martin’s absence giving us a substantial edge on this total.
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