Santa Clara Broncos vs. Saint Mary’s Spread Bet

Santa Clara Broncos (20-12 SU, 17-12 ATS) vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels (24-7 SU, 16-14 ATS)

When: Monday, March 11th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Orleans Arena, NV, Las Vegas

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: SANCLR +9/STMRY -9

Total: 134.5

Money Line: Santa Clara Broncos +358/-482

Notable Injuries

Broncos

Gaels

• Josh Jefferson (Out) Knee
• Harry Wessels (Questionable) Arm

Recent Form

Heading into today’s game, Santa Clara has an overall record of 20-12 and a two-game win streak. They are 11-5 in West Coast Conference play and 9-7 in non-conference action. On the road, they have gone 6-5 this season, and their average scoring margin in those games is +2.9.

So far, the Broncos have been the underdog in 13 of their 32 games, going 6-7 in those contests. In their last game, they defeated San Diego by a score of 104-79. Over their last 10 road games, they have gone 5-5, and their road record for the season is 1-2.

On the season, the over/under record for Santa Clara games is 12-16-1, and today’s line of 134.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (149.7). So far, 28 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s. In their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2, and the average scoring total in those games is 155 points.

As the underdog, Santa Clara has been a solid bet this season, going 9-4 vs. the spread. On the road, the Broncos have an ATS mark of 9-2, and over their last 10 games as the underdog, they are 8-2 vs. the spread.

So far this season, Saint Mary’s has been dominant at home, going 13-7. Over their last 10 games at home, the Gaels are 8-2.

On the other side, Santa Clara has gone 10-0 on the road this season, and they come into this game with a 15.5-point average scoring margin on the road. Their win streak on the road is currently at 10 games.

Today’s over/under line of 134.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Saint Mary’s games this season (133.5). So far, 17 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 139 points, and over their last five games, the average scoring total is 142 points. In terms of their full season over/under record, the over is 16-14 in their games.

When looking at Saint Mary’s ATS record this season, they are currently 16-14. At home, their ATS record is 9-11. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Gaels have gone 6-4 vs. the spread.

Analysis

Coming off a good offensive performance, Santa Clara’s offense scored 104 points against San Diego. Their field goal percentage for the game was 48.4%, and they went 35/41 from the free-throw line. In terms of offense, the Broncos have a season-long field goal percentage of 45%, putting them 127th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 167th in percentage and 106th in three-pointers made.

Santa Clara’s defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 72.0 points per game. So far, the Santa Clara defense is giving up an average of 8.2 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 12.5 times per game (654th).

Most recently, the Saint Mary’s offense finished with just 57 points vs. Gonzaga. For the game, they hit 8/18 three-point attempts and a field goal percentage of 37.3%. Offensively, the Gaels have a season-long field goal percentage of 46%, which is 89th in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 179th in percentage and 166th in three-pointers made.

The Gaels’ defense is presently ranked 3rd nationally, allowing an average of 58.5 points per contest. So far, the Saint Mary’s defense is giving up an average of 6.2 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 9.3 times per game (377th).

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Broncos have a straight-up record of 5-5 while going 8-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 76 points per game in this stretch.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Saint Mary’s has an ATS record of 3-0 while averaging 81 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Santa Clara has an ATS mark of 4-1 while going 1-4 straight up.
• The Gaels have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.

Rich’s Pick To Cover The Spread

It looked like Saint Mary’s was playing a high school team in the first two games against Santa Clara this season, racing out to half time leads of 47-18 and 44-22. They could do that again; however, I’m banking on the time off by the Gaels being the key factor in the spread cover today. Saint Mary’s hasn’t played a meaningful game since the last day in February. The Broncos had their tournament opener on Saturday and easily dispatched the Toreros 104-79 so their confidence should be high and familiarity with the venue should be an advantage. Additionally, betting Santa Clara has been very profitable over their last eight matches going 6-1-1 against the spread. Take Santa Clara +9.5.