San Diego State vs. North Carolina: NCAA Tournament Play-In Betting Prediction

San Diego State Aztecs (20-9 SU, 12-17 ATS) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13 SU, 15-19-1 ATS)

When: Tuesday, March 18th, 9:10 PM (ET)

Where: UD Arena, OH, Dayton

TV: truT

Point Spread: SDST +4.5/NCAR -4.5

Total: 142.5

Money Line: San Diego State Aztecs +172/-210

Notable Injuries

Aztecs

• Reese Waters (Out) Foot

Tar Heels

Recent Form

San Diego State fell to 20-9 on the season after a 62-52 home loss to Boise State on Thursday. The Aztecs were +1.5 point underdogs going into the game and didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 114, which was under the O/U line of 135.

Despite leading 33-28 at halftime, San Diego State struggled in the second half, scoring just 19 points while allowing 34.

North Carolina Tar Heels Recent Game/Games

North Carolina dropped to 22-13 on the season after a 74-71 loss to Duke on Friday, March 14th. The Tar Heels were +7 point underdogs going into the game and managed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 145, which was under the O/U line of 153.5.

After trailing 45-24 at halftime, North Carolina mounted a comeback, outscoring Duke 47-29 in the second half. While they fell short of the win, the Tar Heels’ strong second half showed resilience.

Analysis

San Diego State’s offense struggled in their last game, managing just 52 points on 38.3% shooting from the field. They hit 33.3% of their three-point attempts, going 7-for-21, and their effective field goal percentage was 46.8%.

Nick Boyd led the way with 20 points, shooting 50% overall and 60% from deep (3-for-5). Alvaro Cardenas added 16 points, though he shot just 30.8% from the field and from three-point range (4-for-13).

San Diego State’s defense was solid, giving up just 62 points while holding their opponent to 38% shooting from the field. The Aztecs limited damage inside, allowing 42% shooting on two-point attempts.

From beyond the arc, their opponent shot 33%, hitting 7 of 21 threes. San Diego State also sent them to the line 15 times, where they made nine free throws. The Aztecs gave up just four offensive rebounds.

North Carolina put up 71 points in their last game, shooting 47.3% from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 50.9%, thanks to 60.5% shooting on two-pointers (23/38), though they struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 3 of 17 attempts (17.6%).

Ven-Allen Lubin led the way with 20 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 8 of 11 from the field. Kon Knueppel added 17 points, connecting on 3 of 5 threes, while Elliot Cadeau went 3 for three from deep, finishing with 15 points and five assists.

North Carolina’s defense struggled inside, giving up 74 points while allowing the opposing team to shoot 49% from the field. The Tar Heels had particular trouble with two-point shots, where their opponent went 22/33 for a 66% success rate.

From beyond the arc, North Carolina held their opponent to just 5/22 shooting or 22%. However, they sent them to the free-throw line 22 times, where they converted 15 attempts, shooting 68%. The Tar Heels also gave up 10 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Aztecs have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 0-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 70 points per game in these contests.
• Across their last three home contests, North Carolina has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 3-0. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 76 points per game.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Aztecs have gone 4-6 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 4-6.
• The Tar Heels have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

North Carolina making the tourney was one of the more controversial additions the field, but they have to earn their way into the final 64, as they are in a play-in matchup vs San Diego State. Right now, the Tar Heels are favored by -4.5, and I think they cover this number vs an Aztecs squad that can struggle offensively. Look for UNC to prove they belong in the field by picking up a win and covering the spread.