San Diego State Aztecs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview

San Diego State Aztecs (18-5 SU, 9-12 ATS) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (18-5 SU, 14-9 ATS)

When: Friday, February 9th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Lawlor Events Center, NV, Reno

TV: CBSS

Point Spread: SDST +1.5/NEVADA -1.5

Total: 140.5

Money Line: San Diego State Aztecs +107/-131

Notable Injuries

Aztecs

Wolf Pack

• Tylan Pope (Questionable) Quadricep
• Tyler Powell (Out) Redshirt
• Isaac Hymes (Out) Illness

Recent Form

San Diego State enters this game with a record of 18-5, including a two-game winning streak. They are 7-3 in Mountain West conference play compared to 11-2 in non-conference games. The Aztecs have gone 5-5 on the road this season, and they are 2-3 as the underdog.

In their last game, San Diego State defeated Air Force by a score of 77-64. Over their last 10 road games, the Aztecs have gone 5-5, and their average scoring margin on the road this season is +1.0.

So far this season, the over/under record for San Diego State’s games is 13-8. In their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0. Today’s over/under line of 140.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this year (141) and their games this year have averaged 144.2 points. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 146 points.

San Diego State has not been great against the spread this season, going 9-12. On the road, their ATS mark is just 3-7. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Aztecs are 5-5 vs. the spread.

After a 77-63 win over Utah State, Nevada comes into today’s game as the favorites. They have been favored in 18 of their 23 games this season, going 15-3 in those matchups. At home, the Wolf Pack have been even better, going 11-1 this season with an average scoring margin of +18.6 points per game.

Over their last 10 games at home, Nevada has gone 9-1, and they are currently riding a two-game win streak. On the season, they have gone 18-5, including a 5-4 record in Mountain West action. For the year, they have gone 13-1 in non-conference games compared to a 7-4 mark on the road.

So far this season, the over/under record for Nevada games is 9-14. Today’s over/under line of 140.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this season (143.7). In their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total is 144 points.

As the favorite this season, Nevada has gone 11-7 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Wolf Pack have a mark of 6-4 vs. the spread. At home this year, Nevada is 7-5 vs. the spread and over their last 10 home games, they have a mark of 5-5 vs. the spread.

Analysis

The San Diego State offense is coming off a game in which they scored 77 points vs. Air Force. Overall, their field goal percentage was 51% while connecting on 11 threes. One area that the San Diego State offense has been good this season is getting to the line. Currently, they are 61st in free-throw attempts per contest. Overall, they have a field goal percentage of 45%.

San Diego State’s defense has been playing well, ranking 63rd nationally, with 67.2 points allowed per game. San Diego State’s three-point defense is currently 99th in the country at 6.6 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 41.3% of their shots vs. San Diego State.

In their previous game, the Wolf Pack’s offense finished with 77 points, which is right in line with their current average of 76.6 points per contest. Offensively, the Wolf Pack hold a season-long field goal percentage of 47%, placing them 91st in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 211st in terms of percentage and 310th in three-pointers made.

Coming into today’s game, the Nevada defense is giving up an average of 66.1 points per contest. Against Utah State in their most recent game, the Nevada defense gave up a total of 63 points while allowing Utah State to hit 39% of their shots.

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road contests, the Aztecs offense has averaged 73 points per game while allowing an average of 75. San Diego State posted an overall record of 2-3 while going 1-4 ATS.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Nevada has an ATS record of 6-4 while averaging 72 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Aztecs have a straight-up record of 5-5. Their record vs the spread in these games was 5-5.
• Through their previous five contests as the betting favorite, the Wolf Pack have a strong record of 3-2. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 2-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Wolfpack have a tremendous home court advantage, as evidenced by their 11-1 record at the Lawlor Events Center. Between that showing and the Aztecs showing weakness on the road a times, I’m laying the -2.