Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan State Spartans

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS)

When: Sunday, January 14th, 12:00 PM (ET)

Where: Breslin Center, MI, East Lansing

TV: BTN

Point Spread: RUTGER +10.5/MST -10.5

Total: 136.5

Money Line: Rutgers Scarlet Knights +443/-640

Notable Injuries

Scarlet Knights

• Jeremiah Williams (Out) Eligibility
• Emmanuel Ogbole (Out) Knee

Spartans

• Davis Smith (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Jeremy Fears Jr. (Out) Leg
• Gehrig Normand (Out) Foot

Recent Form

After a win over Indiana, Rutgers will look to build on their 9-6 record when they take on Michigan State as 10.5-point underdogs. So far this season, Rutgers has gone 1-3 in Big Ten play and 1-4 when listed as the underdog.

Over their last 10 road games, the Scarlet Knights have gone 4-6, and their average scoring margin on the road is -6.2. So far this year, they have an average scoring differential of +8.5 at home.

This season, the over/under record in Rutgers games is 4-11. So far, the average scoring total in their games is 132.1 points, which is 5 points lower than the average over/under line of 137.1. Today’s over/under line is 136.5. In their games, 11 have finished with fewer points than that. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 144 points, and their over/under record during this stretch is 2-1.

As the underdog this season, Rutgers has gone just 2-3 vs. the spread. However, over their last ten games as the underdog, the Scarlet Knights have a solid ATS mark of 6-4. On the road this year, Rutgers has an ATS record of 2-2, and their last three road games vs. the spread have resulted in a 2-1 mark.

Michigan State is looking to snap a two-game losing streak as they come into this game with a 9-7 record. They are 1-4 in Big Ten play and 8-3 in non-conference games.

Today, the Spartans are favored by 10.5 points, and they have gone 8-4 when favored this season. At home, they are 9-4, and their average scoring margin at home is +15.6 points per game.

Michigan State’s over/under record for the season is 8-8, and today’s over/under line of 136.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (143.2). Currently, their games have an average of 143.6 points. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1, and the average scoring total is 151 points.

Michigan State’s ATS record this season is 9-7, but they have been much better vs. the spread at home, going 8-5. Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Spartans are 7-3 ATS.

Analysis

In their recent game, the Scarlet Knights’ offense concluded with 66 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 68.3 points per contest. The top scorer for the Scarlet Knights was Mawot Mag with 13 points, while Aundre Hyatt also chipped in with 12 points.

Rutgers’ defense has been playing well, ranking 28th nationally, with 63.7 points allowed per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 6.9 threes per game vs. Michigan State. This has come on a three-point shooting percentage of 31.8%.

In their recent matchup, the Michigan State offense ended with 68 points against Illinois. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 42% and made five threes. For the season, the Michigan State offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA, with a field goal percentage of 48%. So far, they have hit 53% of their looks from inside the arc and are averaging 6.8 made threes per contest.

So far, the Spartans’ defense is ranked 66th in the country at 66.2 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Michigan State’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 39.7% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 30.1% this season.

Betting Trends

• Although Rutgers has a straight up record of 4-6 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 6-4. The team averaged 65 points per game in these games.
• When looking at their past three home matchups, Michigan State has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 70 per game. The team went 0-3 overall in these games.
• The last three games that Rutgers was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 0-3 straight up.
• Michigan State has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

I was tempted to lay the big number, but I think the total is the better way to go here. Both teams can play defense. MSU ranked 21st in FG% and Rut 15th, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the teams held under 60 points. Take the Under 136.