Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Free Pick

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (10-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (13-4 SU, 9-6-2 ATS)

When: Sunday, January 21st, 1:00 PM (ET)

Where: State Farm Center, IL, Champaign

TV: BTN

Point Spread: RUTGER +12/ILL -12

Total: 145.5

Money Line: Rutgers Scarlet Knights +556/-856

Notable Injuries

Scarlet Knights

• Jeremiah Williams (Out) Eligibility
• Emmanuel Ogbole (Out) Knee

Fighting Illini

• Terrence Shannon Jr. (Out) Suspension
• Sencire Harris (Out) Redshirt
• Amani Hansberry (Questionable) Back

Recent Form

So far this season, Rutgers has played 17 games, going 10-7 overall and 1-4 in Big Ten play. On the road, the Scarlet Knights are 1-4, and they have lost their last three games away from home. On the season, their average scoring margin on the road is -8.6 points per game.

As the underdog, Rutgers is 1-5, and today they are getting 12 points against Illinois. The Scarlet Knights’ record when they are the underdog is 1-5, and they have gone 4-6 in their last 10 games on the road.

This season, the over/under record for Rutgers games is 4-12 and today’s over/under line of 145.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (137). So far, 13 of their games have finished with less points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 139 points and their over/under record during this stretch is 1-2.

As the underdog this season, Rutgers has gone 2-4 against the spread and they are 7-9 overall vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS mark is 2-3 and over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Scarlet Knights are 6-4 vs. the spread.

Illinois has been dominant at home this season, going 10-2 with an average scoring margin of +16.5 points per game. They are also 11-2 when favored, and they are favored by 12 points today.

So far, Illinois has gone 4-2 in Big Ten play and 13-4 overall. They are coming off a win over Michigan, and their record over the last 10 games at home is 8-2.

The over/under record for Illinois this season is 10-7, and today’s over/under line of 145.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (146.8). So far, 8 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 147 points, and their over/under record during their last 10 games is 8-2.

Illinois has an ATS record of 9-6-2 this season and is 5-6-1 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Fighting Illini have gone 6-3-1 vs. the spread.

Analysis

The Rutgers offense is coming off a game in which they scored 55 points vs. Michigan State. Overall, their field goal percentage was 37% while connecting on 7 threes. Leading the team in scoring was Aundre Hyatt with 14 points. Mawot Mag also added 12 points for the Scarlet Knights.

In the current season, the Rutgers defense has excelled, sitting 40th in the nation by allowing 65.4 points per game. In their previous game vs. Michigan State, the Spartans finished with a field goal percentage of 45% and a total of 73 points vs. Rutgers.

Illinois’ offense is coming off a good game, putting up 88 points vs. Michigan. Overall, they hit 48.4% of their shots from the field and went 22/30 from the free-throw line. Marcus Domask is currently the leading scorer for the team, entering today’s matchup with an average of 14.9. Meanwhile, Terrence Shannon Jr. also brings a PPG average of 21.7 into the game.

The Fighting Illini’s defense is presently ranked 83rd nationally, allowing an average of 67.8 points per contest. On average, opposing teams are hitting 5.9 threes per game vs. Rutgers. This has come on a three-point shooting percentage of 31.4%.

Betting Trends

• Across the Scarlet Knights last five road games, the team averaged 66 points per game while allowing 74. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 1-4 straight-up.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Illinois has an ATS record of 4-0-1 while averaging 83 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Scarlet Knights have a straight up record of 0-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-2.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Fighting Illini have gone 6-3-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 9-1.

Rich Crew’s O/U Pick

The Scarlet Knights had a crazy high 20 offensive boards and still needed overtime to get by the Cornhuskers. They’re unlikely to get anywhere near that against an Illini team that ranks a good 76th in defensive rebounding percentage. Rutgers scored only 69 points in regulation against Nebraska with all the putback opportunities and they managed just 58 points in the earlier matchup shooting 33.3% from the field and 29.8% from inside the paint. I could see Rutgers hitting mid-60s and Illinois mid-70s. Take the Under 145.5