Razorbacks vs. Tigers: Expert College Basketball Predictions and Best Bet

LSU Tigers (12-11 SU, 11-12 ATS) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (14-9 SU, 8-14-1 ATS)

When: Wednesday, February 12th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Bud Walton Arena, AR, Fayetteville

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: LSU +8.5/ARK -8.5

Total: 146.5

Money Line: LSU Tigers +315/-405

Notable Injuries

Tigers

• Jalen Reed (Out) Knee
• Tyrell Ward (Out) Not Injury Related

Razorbacks

• Boogie Fland (Out) Hand

Recent Form

LSU Tigers Recent Game/Games

LSU fell to 12-11 on the season after a 72-70 home loss to Ole Miss on Saturday. Despite being +5.5 point underdogs, the Tigers kept it close and covered the spread.

LSU led 39-33 at halftime but allowed 39 points in the 2nd half while scoring 31. The combined points of 142 fell short of the 147.5 O/U line.

Arkansas Razorbacks Recent Game/Games

Arkansas fell to 14-9 on the season after an 85-81 loss to Alabama on Saturday. The Razorbacks were +5.5 point underdogs at home but managed to cover the spread.

After trailing 40-34 at halftime, Arkansas put up 47 points in the 2nd half but allowed 45. The total points for the game were just under the O/U line of 166.5.

Analysis

LSU put up 70 points in their last game, shooting 44.6% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 51.8%. They hit 33.3% from three-point range, going 8-for-24, and struggled at the free-throw line, making just 12 of 25 attempts (48%).

Dre Davis led the way with 22 points and seven rebounds, while Sean Pedulla and Cam Carter each knocked down four threes, shooting 57.1% from deep. Daimion Collins was efficient inside, hitting 62.5% of his shots, and Jaemyn Brakefield contributed eight rebounds and four assists.

Even with LSU’s defense giving up 72 points, they managed to limit their opponent’s three-point shooting to 33%, as the other team went 8/24 from deep. From the free-throw line, the opposing team struggled, hitting just 48% of their attempts, going 12/25.

Inside the arc, LSU allowed 53% shooting, with the other team converting 17 of 32 two-point attempts. The Tigers also gave up nine offensive rebounds in the game.

In their latest game, Arkansas put up 81 points, shooting 43.1% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 49.2%. They connected on 35% of their three-point attempts (7/20) and were efficient from the free-throw line, hitting 85.7% (18/21).

Zvonimir Ivišić led the way with 27 points and seven rebounds, shooting 55.6% overall and from beyond the arc (5/9). Adou Thiero added 22 points, hitting 57.1% of his shots and going 1/1 from three-point range.

Even though Arkansas gave up 85 points, they held their opponent to 43% shooting from the field, including 35% from beyond the arc, with seven made threes on 20 attempts. Inside the arc, the other team shot 46%, hitting 21 of their 45 two-point attempts.

The Razorbacks sent their opponent to the free-throw line 21 times, where they converted 18 for an 85% success rate. Arkansas also allowed 13 offensive rebounds in the game.

Betting Trends

• Across their five previous road games, LSU has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 0-5 while averaging 64 points per game.
• The Razorbacks are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
• Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Tigers have a straight-up record of 0-5. But, their mark vs the spread was just 2-3.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Razorbacks have a straight-up record of 7-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-7.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Heading into this matchup, Arkansas is favored by -8.5 at home, but I have LSU keeping this closer than that number. Both teams are below-average units from beyond the arc, and given that LSU has held opponents to just 45.5% shooting on two-point attempts (20th), I see Arkansas having a tough time offensively in this one. I’m going with LSU to cover +8.5.