Purdue vs. Penn State: Betting Odds and Picks for Thursday Night

Purdue Boilermakers (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS)

When: Thursday, December 5th, 6:30 PM (ET)

Where: Bryce Jordan Center, PA, University Park

TV: FS1

Point Spread: PUR +2/PENNST -2

Total: 149.5

Money Line: Purdue Boilermakers +111/-132

Notable Injuries

Boilermakers

• Brian Waddell (Out) Hand
• Daniel Jacobsen (Out) Knee

Nittany Lions

• Eli Rice (Out) Undisclosed
• Miles Goodman (Probable) Shoulder

Recent Form

Purdue improved to 7-1 on the season with an 80-78 win over Ole Miss on Friday. The Boilermakers were -3 favorites heading into the game, but they didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 158, surpassing the O/U line of 145.

Purdue led 42-34 at halftime but allowed 44 points in the 2nd half while scoring 38. Despite the win, the Boilermakers will need to tighten up defensively moving forward.

Penn State Nittany Lions Recent Game/Games

Penn State improved to 7-1 on the season with an 87-64 win over Buffalo on Sunday. The Nittany Lions were heavy favorites at -29 but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 151, falling short of the 160 O/U line.

Penn State led 38-28 at halftime and picked up the pace in the 2nd half, scoring 49 points while allowing 36.

Analysis

Purdue’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their latest game, shooting 54.2% from the field and 45.5% from beyond the arc, with an effective field goal percentage of 64.6%. They connected on ten threes and went 18-for-26 from the free-throw line while also grabbing 11 offensive rebounds and dishing out 19 assists.

Trey Kaufman-Renn led the way with 25 points and 13 rebounds, shooting 66.7% from the field. Myles Colvin added 20 points, hitting 3 of 5 threes, and Braden Smith contributed 18 points and 11 assists, knocking down 4 of 6 from deep.

Even with Purdue’s defensive struggles, allowing 78 points on 54% shooting, they managed to keep the game competitive. The Boilermakers gave up 61% shooting from inside the arc, with their opponent hitting 16 of 26 two-point attempts.

Purdue also allowed ten threes on 22 attempts, with their opponent shooting 45% from deep. From the free-throw line, Purdue sent their opponent to the stripe 26 times, where they made 18 (69%). Purdue also gave up 11 offensive rebounds.

Penn State’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 87 points with a field goal percentage of 56.5%. They were particularly effective inside the arc, hitting 63.4% of their two-point attempts, and their effective field goal percentage was 64.5% overall. From beyond the arc, they connected on 42.9% of their 21 attempts.

Yanic Konan Niederhauser led the way with 27 points on 12-of-16 shooting, while Ryan Sabol added 19 points, hitting five threes. Freddie Dilione contributed 16 points, knocking down four threes at a 44.4% clip. The Nittany Lions dished out 23 assists as a team, with nine offensive rebounds and 8 made free throws on 13 attempts.

Despite Penn State’s defense giving up 64 points, they allowed their opponent to shoot 56% from the field, including 63% on two-point attempts (26/41). The Nittany Lions also struggled to defend the three-point line, where their opponent hit 9 of 21 shots, good for 42%.

On the free-throw line, Penn State sent their opponent to the stripe 13 times, where they converted eight attempts (61%). The Nittany Lions gave up nine offensive rebounds in the game.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Boilermakers have a straight-up record of 7-3 while going 5-5 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 73 points per game in these contests.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Penn State has an ATS record of 5-3-2 while averaging 68 per game. The team went 3-7 overall in these games.
• The Boilermakers have played well in their last five games as the betting underdog, going 3-2 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.
• Although the Nittany Lions have a strong straight up record in their last five games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 2-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Both of these teams have been tough to bet on vs the spread this season, as they are each 4-4 so far. Purdue faced a tough test in their last game vs Ole Miss and just narrowly missed covering the spread, while Penn State crushed Buffalo in a game they were heavily favored. In their only really tough game so far, Penn State couldn’t even hang with Clemson, while Purdue has had a tougher schedule so far. I like Purdue in this one and am taking them on the money line at +111.