Purdue vs Michigan State Betting Preview: Red-Hot Spartans Primed to Cover Against Shaky Boilers

Purdue Boilermakers (19-7 SU, 15-11 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (20-5 SU, 16-9 ATS)

When: Tuesday, February 18th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Breslin Center, MI, East Lansing

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: PUR +3.5/MST -3.5

Total: 148.5

Money Line: Purdue Boilermakers +154/-190

Notable Injuries

Boilermakers

• Daniel Jacobsen (Out) Knee

Spartans

• Brennan Walton (Out) Redshirt
• Colin Walton (Out) Redshirt

Recent Form

Purdue fell to 19-7 on the season after a 94-84 home loss to Wisconsin on Saturday. The Boilermakers, who were -5.5 favorites, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 178, exceeding the O/U line of 151.5.

Purdue led 37-36 at halftime but struggled defensively in the second half, allowing 58 points while scoring 47. This defensive lapse was a key factor in their defeat.

Michigan State improved to 20-5 on the season with a 79-65 win over Illinois on Saturday. The Spartans were +6.5 point underdogs going into the game and not only pulled off the upset but also covered the spread.

After trailing 41-37 at halftime, Michigan State’s defense stepped up in the second half, holding Illinois to just 24 points while scoring 42 of their own. The game’s total points (144) fell short of the 158.5 O/U line.

Analysis

Purdue’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 84 points with a 51.8% shooting performance from the field. They connected on 45.5% of their three-point attempts, going 10-for-22 from deep, and finished with an effective field goal percentage of 60.7%. The Boilermakers also shot 76.2% from the free-throw line, hitting 16 of 21 attempts.

John Tonje and Trey Kaufman-Renn led the way for Purdue, with Tonje scoring 32 points on 10-of-15 shooting, including 4-of-9 from three-point range. Kaufman-Renn added 30 points, shooting 12-of-16 from the field. Purdue finished with 21 assists as a team, with Max Klesmit dishing out six assists to go along with his 17 points.

Purdue’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 94 points on 51% shooting from the field. They allowed their opponent to connect on 55% of their two-point attempts, going 19/34.

From beyond the arc, Purdue’s opponent shot 45%, hitting 10 of 22 threes. They also sent them to the free-throw line 21 times, where they made 16 free throws, shooting 76%.

Jaxon Kohler’s 23 points and 10 rebounds led Michigan State to a 79-point performance, shooting 69.2% from the field and 80% from three. Morez Johnson Jr. added 17 points, hitting 75% of his shots, while Kasparas Jakucionis also contributed 17 points despite shooting just 33.3% overall and 22.2% from deep.

The Spartans shot 48.5% from the field, with an effective field goal percentage of 52.9%. They hit 41.7% from three-point range and 61.5% from the free-throw line, grabbing 14 offensive rebounds and dishing out 12 assists in the game.

Michigan State’s defense held their opponent to 65 points on 38% shooting from the field. They allowed 17 two-point baskets on 30 attempts, a 56% conversion rate.

From beyond the arc, Michigan State’s defense limited their opponent to 7 made threes on 33 attempts, just 21% shooting. They also sent them to the free-throw line 13 times, where they made 10, a 76% success rate. Michigan State gave up 12 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• The Boilermakers are 5-0 ATS in their last road games and 4-1 straight-up.
• In their last ten games at home, the Spartans have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 7-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 75 points per game in these contests.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Boilermakers have gone 2-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Michigan State has an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 8-2 straight up.

Joe”s Pick To Cover The Spread

Michigan State comes into this matchup as -3.5 point favorites after they took down Illinois on Saturday, while Purdue was surprised by Wisconsin at home. The Badgers exposed the Boilermakers’ defense for 94 points, and they made life tough for Braden Smith, who finished with just 6 points. I think the Spartans can put together a game plan similar to Wisconsin, and I see them winning this one and covering.