Purdue vs. Houston Sweet 16 Predictions: Cougars’ Elite Defense Favored Against Struggling Boilermakers

Purdue Boilermakers (24-17 SU, 17-24 ATS) vs. Houston Cougars (39-4 SU, 24-18-1 ATS)

When: Friday, March 28th, 10:09 PM (ET)

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, IN, Indianapolis

TV: TBS

Point Spread: PUR +8/HOU -8

Total: 132.5

Money Line: Purdue Boilermakers +292/-383

Notable Injuries

Boilermakers

• Daniel Jacobsen (Out) Knee

Cougars

• Ramon Walker Jr. (Out) Hand
• Jacob McFarland (Out) Leg

Recent Form

Purdue’s season record dropped to 24-17 after an 86-68 road loss to Michigan on Friday, March 14th. The Boilermakers entered the game as a -2.5 favorite but failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 154, surpassing the O/U line of 149.5.

Purdue trailed 40-36 at halftime and struggled defensively in the 2nd half, allowing 46 points while scoring only 32.

Houston Cougars Recent Game/Games

The Cougars improved to 39-4 this season with a 72-64 win over Arizona on Saturday, March 15th. Playing at home, Houston entered the game as -5.5 point favorites and covered the spread with the victory.

After trailing 33-28 at halftime, Houston turned things around in the 2nd half, outscoring Arizona 44-31. The total points for the game ended at 136, just under the O/U line of 138.

Analysis

Purdue’s offense struggled in their last game, shooting just 33.8% from the field and 31.8% from beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage was 40%, but they did hit 77.3% of their free throws, going 17-for-22 from the line.

Trey Kaufman-Renn led the way with 24 points, despite shooting 9-for-24. Danny Wolf added 18 points, shooting 7-for-10 and hitting 2 of 4 from three while also contributing 11 rebounds and six assists.

Purdue’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 86 points on 51% shooting from the field. They allowed their opponent to hit 68% of their two-point attempts, with 22 makes on 32 tries.

From beyond the arc, Purdue’s opponent shot 30%, connecting on 8 of 26 three-point attempts. They also sent them to the line 22 times, where they made 18 free throws, shooting 81%. Purdue gave up nine offensive rebounds.

In their recent game, the Cougars put up 72 points, shooting 42.6% from the field and 39.1% from beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage was 49.2%, and they hit 91.7% of their free throws, going 11-for-12 from the line.

Milos Uzan led the way with 25 points, shooting 50% overall and 66.7% from three-point range. Caleb Love added 19 points, though he shot just 36.8% from the field and 22.2% from deep.

Despite Houston’s defensive efforts, they allowed 64 points on 42% shooting from the field, with their opponent hitting 26 of 61 attempts. Inside the arc, the Cougars gave up 17 two-point baskets on 38 attempts, a 44% success rate.

From three-point range, Houston’s opponent connected on 9 of 23 shots, shooting 39%. The Cougars also sent them to the free-throw line 12 times, where they converted 11, shooting 91%. Houston allowed nine offensive rebounds in the game.

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road contests, the Boilermakers offense has averaged 69 points per game while allowing an average of 79. Purdue posted an overall record of 0-5 while going 1-4 ATS.
• Houston has played well in their previous five home games, going 5-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 69 points per game while allowing 60. The team also performed well vs. the spread at 3-2.
• The last five games that Purdue was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 1-4 straight up.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Cougars have a straight up record of 10-0. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

At this time, the oddsmakers have Houston favored by -8 over Purdue. Houston’s athleticism and defensive tenacity figure to be a big issue for a Purdue squad that could be overwhelmed by Houston’s style of play. I’m going with the Cougars to win and cover.