Purdue Boilermakers vs. Indiana Hoosiers Pick ATS

Purdue Boilermakers (15-2 SU, 9-8 ATS) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 20, 7 p.m.

Where: Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Ind.

TV: FS1

Point Spread: PUR -3.5/IND +3.5 at EveryGame (Formerly Intertops – Deposit $25 and then enter bonus code ROOKIE200 and they’ll give you a FREE $50 Bet!)

Moneyline: PUR -165/IND +145

Total: 144.5

Last Time Out:

Purdue beat Illinois 96-88 in double overtime; Indiana beat Nebraska 78-71.

About the Matchup:

The Hoosiers survived the trap in Lincoln, and now they get to see just how far they’ve actually come by facing off with their long-time in-state rivals in Purdue. The Boilermakers have simply dominated the series in recent years, winning the past nine meetings and sending Archie Miller packing as coach in part because of his failures against the Boilers. The Hoosiers have played well at times this season, but they’ve been a major home-court hero, losing all of their road games until the win over Nebraska.

For Purdue, a win here would give the Boilers their first 10-game winning streak in the rivalry since the 1910s and just their second-ever six-game winning streak in Bloomington. But Purdue has a bit of a problem here: Illinois. The Boilers just had the emotional high of a physically draining double-overtime win in Champaign, and bouncing back to play another emotionally charged game just three nights later might be a tall ask, even for a team as talented as Purdue. The Boilers have had their problems getting up for certain games already this year, as they’ve gone just 2-7 ATS in their past nine contests. But if there’s one game the Boilers shouldn’t have any trouble getting psyched for, it’s Indiana

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Scouting the Boilermakers:

There’s a reason that Purdue averages 86.2 points per game: it’s almost impossible to take away every weapon that the Boilers have. With most teams, there’s some kind of weakness on the floor that you can make try to beat you, but with Purdue, the only way that works is if you get multiple guys in foul trouble.

Try to cut off the interior, and Jaden Ivey and Sasha Stefanovic will just beat you from the outside. Guard the perimeter, and you open up the paint for Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. Sending the Boilers to the line doesn’t work. You can’t push them around inside, and although they’re not perfect with the basketball, their number of turnovers is average for the number of possessions they get per game.

In short, this is a team that doesn’t really have any answers for how to stop them. Your best bet is to try to extend your own possessions and make sure they count, which is doable because Purdue’s one weakness is that its defense isn’t quite up to snuff. That cost the Boilers against Wisconsin and nearly did them in against Iowa…but it takes the right team to take advantage of that plan.

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Scouting the Hoosiers:

Defensive tests don’t come much bigger than this one for the Hoosiers, who have made their living on denying good looks at the basket this season. Indiana boasts the No. 2 defense in the nation in opposing field goal percentage, and one big reason is that Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson have made the paint their own. Trying to challenge them isn’t going to work for most teams; it usually just leads to a missed shot or a turnover. However, Purdue is one of the few teams who can physically match the Hoosiers, which means Indiana is going to need more out of its guards.

So far, that’s not panning out. Parker Stewart is the one real outside threat that the Hoosiers have, and in this game, the strategy of take whatever shot you can get and let the bi men go get it just won’t work. Indiana is going to have to get someone else to step up and, above all, avoid fouling. When the Hoosiers get beat, it’s usually because they can’t play any defense when teams are at the foul line. With Purdue shooting free throws well, Indiana has to be physical without going over the top.

Purdue will Cover If: The Boilers can wait for looks to come. Indiana’s defense will set out to frustrate Purdue, but the Boilers have so many weapons that if they can avoid the early annoyance and patiently wait for their shot, they’ll be able to exploit the Hoosier defense.

Indiana will Cover If: The Hoosiers can hold their own on the glass and get help on the perimeter. Jackson-Davis and Thompson can win the battle inside with Edey and Williams, but if Ivey and Stefanovic take over the game from the outside, it will all be for nothing.

Dan’s Best Prop Bets

Indiana has seen its past three go over the total, and those were mostly against lesser offenses than Purdue. The Hoosiers should do their share of scoring, so this seems like the over will be a solid play.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

I’m worried about Purdue’s mentality after a draining game with Illinois, but I think they can hold up one more game because it’s against Indiana. I might very well look to fade Purdue on Sunday to Northwestern, but for now, I’m going to trust the Boilers to cover in Bloomington. On an unrelated note, check out who our Handicappers like in this weekend’s NFL playoff games!