Providence vs. Villanova Expert Pick & Analysis 1/29/23

Providence (16-5 SU 13-8 ATS) vs. Villanova (10-10 SU 7-13 ATS)
When: Sunday, January 29th: 12:00 ET
Where: Wells Fargo Center Philadelphia, PA
TV: FS1
Point Spread: Prov -1.5/Vill +1.5
Total: 139.5
Money Line: Providence Friars -126/Villanova Wildcats +102

The Providence Friars look to give the Villanova Wildcats all they can handle when they meet at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. The tip-off for this game is scheduled for 12:00 pm. The CBB board has the visiting Friars as a small -1.5 favorite with a total line of 138.5

Line Movement

This game opened with the Friars as a -1 spread favorite and has since climbed a half point to 1.5. The total has been hopping around a bit with some highs of 140.5 and lows of 137.5 but appears to have settled in at 138.5 at most sportsbooks.

Last Game Info

Providence picked up a victory over Butler by a score of 79-58. Heading into the game, the Friars were favored to win, with a point spread of -9.5. The combined 137 points did not surpass the 138 total line.

Villanova will be looking for another win, as they most recently defeated St. John’s by a score of 57-49. The Wildcats also picked up an ATS victory as they were +4 point underdogs. The combined 106 points did not surpass the 150.5 total line.

Current Form

Providence
Over their last five games, Providence has a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Friars’ offense averages 75.8 points per game while hitting 47.7% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 46.4% from the field while allowing 71.6 points per contest.

Villanova
In their previous five contests, Villanova is 2-3 straight-up and 1-4 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 70.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.4%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 48.5% of their shots while giving up 72.8 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Providence’s opponents comes in at 78.8. On the other side, Villanova’s combined opponent power rating sits at 80.6.

How Does Providence Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Friars have played eight road games and have a record of 4-4. In these contests, Providence is 5-3 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 71.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.0%. On defense, the Friars allow 69.6 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 44.2% in these games.

How Does Villanova Fare At Home?

In their ten games at home, Villanova has a 2-8 record vs. the spread while going 6-4 straight-up. On offense, the Wildcats are shooting 44.7% on their home floor, leading to 73.2 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 47.0% in these contests. The Villanova defense is allowing 69.9 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Providence is averaging 71.8 points per game (179th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 43.7%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Villanova defense that has allowed an average of 68.4 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 44.4% of their shots vs. Villanova. On the other side, the Villanova Wildcats are coming into the game averaging 72.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.7%. The Wildcats will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 68.3 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 42.6% of their shots vs. the Friars.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Providence has a shooting percentage of 34.3% while ranking 402nd in attempts per game. The Friars will be facing a Villanova defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 34.9%. Villanova enters the game having hit 35.9% of their looks from deep while averaging 9.3 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Providence has allowed opponents to hit 33.0% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Providence

• No Reported Injuries

Villanova

• Justin Moore (Out) Achilles
• Jordan Longino (Out) Hamstring
• Nnanna Njoku (Out) Foot

Pick Against The Spread

Look, a home win over lowly Georgetown and catching a St. Johns off a huge road upset over UConn for another are not overly impressive. Providence isn’t the strongest team away from home, but they do have a positive Big East road record going 3-2 with the two losses coming against Marquette and Creighton, and this season Villanova is not in their class. Take Providence -1.5.