Providence vs Marquette Picks and Predictions: Struggling Friars Keep It Close

Providence Friars (12-15 SU, 13-14 ATS) vs. Marquette Golden Eagles (20-7 SU, 11-15-1 ATS)

When: Tuesday, February 25th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: FS1

Point Spread: PROV +10.5/MARQ -10.5

Total: 146.5

Money Line: Providence Friars +460/-670

Notable Injuries

Friars

• Jabri Abdur-Rahim (Out) Knee
• Bryce Hopkins (Out) Knee
• Corey Floyd Jr. (Questionable) Undisclosed

Golden Eagles

• Sean Jones (Out) Redshirt
• Al Amadou (Out) Redshirt

Recent Form

Providence Friars Recent Game/Games

The Friars fell to 12-15 on the season after a 93-72 road loss to Georgetown on Wednesday. Entering the game as +1 underdogs, Providence not only lost but also failed to cover the spread.

Providence trailed 48-31 at halftime and couldn’t close the gap in the second half, scoring 41 points while allowing 45. The game’s total points of 165 exceeded the over/under line of 142.5.

Marquette Golden Eagles Recent Game/Games

The Golden Eagles fell to 20-7 on the season after an 81-66 road loss to Villanova on Friday, February 21st. Marquette entered the game as a 2-point favorite but failed to cover the spread.

Marquette trailed 46-33 at halftime and couldn’t close the gap in the second half, scoring 33 points while allowing 35. The total points for the game were 147, surpassing the over/under line of 141.5.

Analysis

Providence managed just 36.5% shooting from the field in their last game, with an effective field goal percentage of 44.4%. They hit 31.2% from three-point range, connecting on 10 of 32 attempts, while making 13 of 31 two-pointers (41.9%). At the free-throw line, they were efficient, hitting 16 of 20 for 80%.

Micah Peavy led the way with 30 points and seven assists, shooting 50% from the field and 66.7% from three (4/6). Bensley Joseph added 25 points, shooting 47.1% overall and 44.4% from deep (4/9). Providence also grabbed 14 offensive rebounds and finished with 10 assists as a team.

Providence’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 93 points while allowing their opponent to shoot 50% from the field. Inside the arc, they allowed 20 two-point baskets on 36 attempts, a 55% shooting rate.

From three-point range, Providence’s opponent hit 10 of 23 shots, good for 43%. They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 28 times, where they converted 23, an 82% success rate. Providence gave up 10 offensive rebounds as well.

Marquette’s offense put up 66 points in their last game, shooting 42.1% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc, hitting 10 threes on 30 attempts. Their effective field goal percentage was 50.9%, and they were perfect from the free-throw line, going 8 for 8.

Zaide Lowery was a standout, hitting five threes without a miss and shooting 9 for 10 overall, finishing with 25 points and eight rebounds. Eric Dixon added 23 points, connecting on 3 of 5 from deep, while Jhamir Brickus hit five threes at a 62.5% clip, contributing 21 points and three assists.

Marquette’s defense couldn’t contain their opponent from beyond the arc, allowing them to hit 15 of 26 threes at a 57% clip. Overall, they gave up 81 points on 45% shooting from the field.

Despite holding their opponent to just 33% shooting on two-pointers, Marquette sent them to the line 20 times, where they converted 18 free throws.

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, Providence has averaged 72 points per game while allowing 77. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-4 while going 3-2.
• Although Marquette has a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 3-7. The team averaged 71 points per game in these games.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Friars have a straight-up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 2-3.
• Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Golden Eagles have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

In my opinion, Marquette looks like a team that, come tournament time, is a prime candidate to get knocked off early. Even though they are currently 3rd in the Big East and have 20 wins, there are a lot of flaws on this roster. Providence is just 6-10 in Big East action this year, and I don’t see them winning tonight’s game, but I do see them pushing Marquette more than the line suggests. I like the Friars to cover at +10.5.