Providence Friars vs. Xavier Musketeers Pick: Bet the Total

When: Wednesday, February 21st, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Cintas Center, OH, Cincinnati

TV: CBSS

Point Spread: PROV +5/XAV -5

Total: 150.5

Money Line: Providence Friars +171/-211

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Notable Injuries

Friars

• Bryce Hopkins (Out) Knee
• Justyn Fernandez (Out) Knee

Musketeers

• Jerome Hunter (Out) Heart
• Zach Freemantle (Out) Foot

Recent Form

Providence enters their game against Xavier as an underdog, as they have gone 4-6 in 10 games as the underdog this season. On the road, the Friars have gone just 3-6 this season, and they have lost their last three games away from home.

Overall, Providence has gone 17-9 this season, and they have won two games in a row. In Big East play, they have gone 8-7, compared to a 9-2 record in non-conference games.

Providence’s over/under record for the season is 12-14, and today’s line of 150.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (141.3). In their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0, and the average scoring total in those games is 148 points.

As the underdog, Providence has been a solid bet against the spread this season, going 8-2 vs. the spread as the underdog. Their road ATS record is also impressive at 7-2. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Friars have gone 8-2 vs. the spread.

After losing their last two games, Xavier is looking to get back on track at home against Providence. The Musketeers have gone 10-5 at home this season compared to 3-7 on the road. Over their last 10 games at home, Xavier has gone 7-3.

So far this season, the Musketeers have been favored in 14 of their 25 games, going 11-3 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin at home is +7.0 compared to -3.7 on the road. Xavier’s overall record this season is 13-12, including a 7-7 mark in Big East play.

The over/under record for Xavier this season is 14-11, and their games have averaged 148.7 points. Today’s over/under line of 150.5 is similar to the average OU line in their games (148.6). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 138 points, and their over/under record in their last 10 games is 8-2.

When looking at Xavier’s ATS record this season, they are 14-9-2. At home, their ATS mark is 8-5-2. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Musketeers are 6-3-1 vs. the spread.

Analysis

Providence’s offense is coming off a good game, putting up 81 points vs. DePaul. Overall, they hit 46.7% of their shots from the field and went 12/19 from the free-throw line. The top scorer for the Friars was Devin Carter with 31 points, while Josh Oduro also chipped in with 27 points.

Currently, the Friars’ defense holds the 82nd rank in the nation, allowing 68.0 points per game. In their most recent game, the Providence defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as DePaul knocked down 13 three-pointers on their way to 70 points.

In contrast to their season average of 75.7 points per game, the Xavier had a below average performance. They scored 70 points against Seton Hall and had a field goal percentage of 44.6%. One area that the Xavier offense has been good this season is getting to the line. Currently, they are 150th in free-throw attempts per contest. Overall, they have a field goal percentage of 43%.

Xavier’s defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 73.0 points per game. Xavier’s defense is coming off a game in which they allowed the Seton Hall offense to knock down 54% of their shots on their way to putting up 88 points.

Betting Trends

• Providence has a 2-3 record in their last five road games. In this stretch, they averaged 70 points per game while allowing 68. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
• Across the Musketeers last three home games, the team averaged 73 points per game while allowing 85. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2, while going 1-2 straight-up.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Friars have a strong record vs the spread going 4-1. Their straight up mark in these contests is 2-3.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Musketeers have a strong straight up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 2-0-1 in these scenarios.

Rich Crew’s O/U Pick

Last time around the Musketeers hit 12 of 24 from downtown and while they do shoot a lot of 3s they average just 32.8 %. A regression to the mean probably gets us cashing our tickets. Take the Under 150.5.

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