Providence Friars vs. Villanova Wildcats Total Pick | Feb 4, 2024

Providence Friars (14-7 SU, 13-8 ATS) vs. Villanova Wildcats (11-10 SU, 10-10 ATS)

When: Sunday, February 4th, 6:00 PM (ET)

Where: Wells Fargo Center, PA, Philadelphia

TV: FS1

Point Spread: PROV +4.5/VILL -4.5

Total: 137.5

Money Line: Providence Friars +162/-199

Notable Injuries

Friars

• Bryce Hopkins (Out) Knee
• Justyn Fernandez (Out) Knee

Wildcats

• Trey Patterson (Out) Shoulder
• Nnanna Njoku (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Providence comes into this game with a 14-7 overall record, including a 5-5 mark in Big East play. On the road, the Friars are 3-4 this season, and they have gone 4-6 in their last 10 games away from home.

As the underdog, Providence is 3-4 this season, and they have gone 2-3 in their last five road games. For the year, they are averaging a +1.1 scoring margin on the road.

Providence’s over/under record for the season is 8-13, and today’s line of 137.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (141). So far, 12 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 143 points, and their over/under record during this stretch is 2-1.

Providence has been a strong bet against the spread this season, going 13-8. Their road ATS record is even better at 6-1. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Friars have gone 6-4 vs. the spread.

After losing their last game to Marquette, Villanova will look to get back on track as they are 11-10 overall and 4-5 in the Big East. At home, the Wildcats have been much better, going 8-5 compared to 3-4 on the road.

So far this season, Villanova has been favored in 15 of their 21 games, going 9-6 in those matchups. Today, they are favored by 4.5 points, and the over/under is set at 137.5.

On the season, the over/under record for Villanova games is 8-11-1 and today’s line of 137.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (139.2). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 151 points.

As the favorite this season, Villanova has gone just 7-8 vs. the spread, and their ATS mark at home is just 7-6. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Wildcats are just 4-6 vs. the spread.

Analysis

The Providence offense, in their latest game, managed to score just 65 points versus Connecticut. During the game, they attempted 18 three-point shots and had a field goal percentage of 41.4%. Offensively, the Friars have a season long field goal percentage of 46%, which is 121st in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 310th in percentage and 166th in three-pointers made.

Coming into today’s game, the Providence defense is giving up an average of 66.5 points per contest. In today’s game, the Providence defense will be looking to once again do a good job defending the three-point line, as they gave up just 4 three-pointers while giving up 74 points.

Villanova finished with 80 points in their game against Marquette. This total surpasses their season-average of 73.2 points per game. Leading the team in scoring was Eric Dixon, who scored 24 points. TJ Bamba also added 24 points for the Wildcats.

Coming into today’s game, the Villanova defense is giving up an average of 68.4 points per contest. Villanova’s three-point defense is currently 177th in the country at 7.9 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 42.7% of their shots vs. Villanova.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Friars have a straight up record of 4-6 while going 7-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 69 points per game in these contests.
• Across the Wildcats last ten home games, the team averaged 71 points per game while allowing 73. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 3-7, while going 3-7 straight-up.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Providence has an ATS mark of 5-0 while going 2-3 straight up.
• Through their previous five contests as the betting favorite, the Wildcats have a strong record of 3-2. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 2-3.

Rich’s O/U Pick

The Friars offense is not the same after losing Bryce Hopkins to injury on Jan 3. Over their last eight games since the injury excluding two games against bottom feeders DePaul and Georgetown, Providence has scored 67 or fewer in five of the other six. The ‘Nova defense isn’t what it used to be, but I believe they can keep Prov in check here and the pace should support our pick. Maybe a a 67-65 type game? Take the Under 138.