Princeton at Dartmouth Expert Analysis and Prediction

Princeton (16-6 SU 9-10 ATS) vs. Dartmouth (8-15 SU 13-7 ATS)
When: Saturday, February 11th: 2:00 ET
Where: Edward Leede Arena Hanover, NH
TV: ESPN+
Point Spread: Prin -7.5/Dart +7.5
Total: 142.0
Money Line: Princeton Tigers -300/Dartmouth Big Green +240

The conference-leading Princeton Tigers head to Hanover, NH, to take on the Dartmouth Big Green in Saturday Ivy League action. We’ll break down the game with some key stats and our top pick for their 2/11/23 college basketball game.

Line Movement

This spread opened at most betting sites with Princeton as a -7.5 road favorite where it has held. The total has moved around a bit, with an opener of 141 now up to 141.5 points.

Last Game Info

Princeton picked up a victory over Columbia by a score of 88-66. Heading into the game, the Tigers were favored to win, with a point spread of -16.5. The combined 154 points finished above the 144.5 total line.

Dartmouth lost to Yale in their last game by a score of 72-53. But because the Big Green was +8.5 point underdogs, they finished with an ATS win. The combined 125 points did not surpass the 137 total line.

Current Form

Princeton
Over their last five games, Princeton has a straight-up record of 4-1 while going 3-2 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Tigers’ offense averages 81.4 points per game while hitting 46.9% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 46.1% from the field while allowing 77.0 points per contest.

Dartmouth
In their previous five contests, Dartmouth is 2-3 straight-up and 3-2 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 69.4 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.9%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 45.4% of their shots while giving up 74.0 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Princeton’s opponents comes in at 72.5. On the other side, Dartmouth’s combined opponent power rating sits at 72.7.

How Does Princeton Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Tigers have played ten road games and have a record of 6-4. In these contests, Princeton is 6-3 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 72.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 48.2%. On defense, the Tigers allow 66.2 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 42.5% in these games.

How Does Dartmouth Fare At Home?

In their ten games at home, Dartmouth has a 7-1 record vs. the spread while going 5-5 straight-up. On offense, the Big Green is shooting 47.0% on their home floor, leading to 74.2 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 40.9% in these contests. The Dartmouth defense is allowing 66.7 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Princeton is averaging 79.9 points per game (17th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 48.8%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Dartmouth defense that has allowed an average of 70.2 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 42.4% of their shots vs. Dartmouth. On the other side, the Dartmouth Big Green is coming into the game averaging 70.1 points per game on a shooting percentage of 42.8%. The Big Green will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 67.5 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 42.7% of their shots vs. the Tigers.

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Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Princeton has a shooting percentage of 38.8% while ranking 90th in attempts per game. The Tigers will be facing a Dartmouth defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 32.9%. Dartmouth enters the game having hit 34.6% of their looks from deep while averaging 9.46 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Princeton has allowed opponents to hit 32.2% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Princeton

• No Reported Injuries

Dartmouth

• No Reported Injuries

Pick Against The Line

The earlier match-up at the Jadwin Gymnasium resulted in a razor-tight 93-90 Princeton overtime win. Dartmouth shot 52% at Princeton as everything seemed to fall in. That percentage is way above their season average of 43.4%, and I believe the Tigers will be focused on keeping that closer to their average this time around. The Big Green are ice cold right now on offense scoring just 61 and 53 in two home games against Brown and Yale. Princeton averaged 76.4 PPG this season, but that number falls to 71.3 on the road. Take the UNDER 141.