Penn State vs. Ohio State Spread Pick & Analysis For 2/23/23

Penn State (16-11 SU 15-12 ATS) vs. Ohio State (11-16 SU 8-19 ATS)
When: Thursday, February 23rd: 6:30 ET
Where: Value City Arena Columbus, OH
TV: FS1
Point Spread: PSU +1.5/OSU -1.5
Total: 142.0
Money Line: Penn State Nittany Lions +105/Ohio State Buckeyes -129

The Penn State Nittany Lions visit the slumping Ohio State Buckeyes tonight in Columbus. Ohio State is a small -2 spread favorite, with the total line offered up at 142 points. The tip-off at Value City Arena is scheduled for 6:30 PM and be watched on FS1.

Line Movement:

The Buckeyes hit the board as a -1.5 spread home favorite, and early betting has moved that line up to Ohio State -2. The total opened at some betting shops at 142.5 before settling in at 142.

Last Game Info

Penn State is coming off a 76-69 win over Minnesota. However, they did not cover the spread in the game as a -7.5 point favorite. The combined 145 points finished above the 133.5 total line.

Ohio State most recently fell to Purdue (82-55). Not only did the Buckeyes lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +13 point underdogs. The combined 137 points did not surpass the 138 total line.

Current Form

Penn State
Over their last five games, Penn State, has a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Nittany Lions offense averages 74.8 points per game while hitting 48.8% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 51.3% from the field while allowing 75.0 points per contest.

Ohio State
In their previous five contests, Ohio State is 0-5 straight-up and 0-5 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 60.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.2%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 49.6% of their shots while giving up 76.4 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Penn State’s opponents comes in at 82.7. Conversely, Ohio State’s combined opponent power rating sits at 83.9.

How Does Penn State Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Nittany Lions have played 11 road games and have a record of 3-8. In these contests, Penn State is 5-6 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 66.9 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.3%. On defense, the Nittany Lions allow 70.8 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 46.8% in these games.

How Does Ohio State Fare At Home?

In their 15 games at home, Ohio State has a 6-9 record vs. the spread while going 9-6 straight-up. On offense, the Buckeyes are shooting 48.1% on their home floor, leading to 76.2 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 41.7% in these contests. The Ohio State defense is allowing 64.9 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Penn State is averaging 64.6 points per game (391st) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 43.2%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against an Ohio State defense that has allowed an average of 69.2 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 42.8% of their shots vs. Ohio State. Conversely, the Ohio State Buckeyes are coming into the game averaging 73.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 47.4%. The Buckeyes will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 68.7 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 44.0% of their shots vs. the Nittany Lions.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Penn State has a shooting percentage of 34.2% while ranking 268th in attempts per game. The Nittany Lions will be facing an Ohio State defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 31.8%. Ohio State enters the game having hit 37.3% of their looks from deep while averaging 8.1 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Penn State has allowed opponents to hit 34.0% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Penn State

• Caleb Dorsey (Questionable) Undisclosed

Ohio State

• Zed Key (Out) Shoulder

Pick Against The Spread

I’m going to back the Buckeyes here. I think they match up well. They’re unlikely to get beat up on the glass, and they should be able to do a decent job defending the Penn State’s 3-point. I’ve been getting beat up lately, so take that into consideration before you tail.