Pac-12 Predictions: Colorado at Arizona – Jan 4, 2024

Colorado Buffaloes (11-2 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) vs. Arizona Wildcats (10-3 SU, 10-3 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 4th, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: McKale Center, AZ, Tucson

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: COL +11/ARZ -11

Total: 161.5

Money Line: Colorado Buffaloes +454/-678

Notable Injuries

Buffaloes

• Tristan Da Silva (Questionable) Ankle
• RJ Smith (Out) Leg
• Bangot Dak (Questionable) Illness
• Cody Williams (Out) Wrist

Wildcats

• Dylan Anderson (Out) Redshirt
• Henri Veesaar (Out) Elbow

Recent Form

In today’s game against Arizona, the Colorado team comes in with a record of 11-2. In away games, they have a 1-2 record, but are undefeated at home with a 10-0 record.

Looking at their over/under performance through 13 games, Colorado has an over/under record of 7-6-0, with their games averaging 153.1 points per game on average. When analyzing the Buffaloes’ last five games, they have produced a combined average of 152 points per game and an over/under record of 2-3.

As of today’s game, Colorado has a 7-5-1 record against the spread. In their last ten games this season, Colorado is 3-1-1 vs. the spread.

Today marks Arizona’s 14th game of the season and they currently have a record of 10-3. This season, all of the Wildcats’ games have been played away from home.

Through 13 games, Arizona has an over/under record of 7-6-0 with their games averaging a combined 165.7 points per game so far. In the Wildcats’ last five games, the combined scoring average stands at 158 points per game, accompanied by an over/under record of 2-3.

As of today, Arizona holds a 10-3 ATS record. This season, they have gone 3-3 vs. the spread on the road and a perfect 7-0 at home.

The Historicals

The Wildcats have had the better record vs the spread over the last five games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 4 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 146 points per game.

Analysis

Against Washington State, Colorado had a tough time putting up points compared to their season average of 84.2 points per game. They scored 74 points and posted a field goal percentage of 50% in the game. KJ Simpson led the team in scoring, putting up 34 points. Additionally, J’vonne Hadley contributed 12 points for the Buffaloes.

Coming into today’s game, the Colorado defense is giving up an average of 68.8 points per contest. In today’s game vs. Arizona, the Colorado defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Colorado made 22 free throws vs. the Buffaloes.

Arizona’s offense had a good outing, putting up 82 points against Stanford. They achieved a 43.8% field goal percentage and went 11/15 from the free-throw line. For the season, the Arizona offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA with a field goal percentage of 49%. So far, they have hit 55% of their looks from inside the arc and are averaging 7.6 made threes per contest.

So far, the Wildcats’ defense is ranked 188th in the country at 73.4 points per contest. The Arizona defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 100 points and allowed Stanford to connect on 16 threes.

Betting Trends

• In their last five games away from home, the Buffaloes have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 1-4 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 72 points per game in these contests.
• In their last three games at home, the Wildcats have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 92 points per game in this stretch.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Colorado has an ATS mark of 3-2 while going 1-4 straight up.
• Going back to their previous five games as the favorite, Arizona has an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 2-3 straight up.

Rich Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Motivation shouldn’t be a problem for the Wildcats tonight when Arizona hosts the Buffaloes, but the point spread is problematic. Colorado is playing very well right now. The winners of six consecutive games and going 5-1 versus the number over the half dozen games. KJ Simpson has been on fire, hitting or surpassing 31 points in back-to-back games, and can score from any spot on the floor. Col hasn’t won in Tucson since joining the Pac-12, but they don’t have to get the money. Take the Buffaloes +12.5