Oregon State Beavers vs. Oregon Ducks Pick 2/27/20

Oregon State Beavers (15-12 SU, 15-12 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (21-7 SU, 16-12 ATS)

When: Thursday, February 27, 11 p.m.

Where: Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, Ore.

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: OSU +10/U of O -10 (Best Bonus)

Total: O/U 137

Last Time Out:

Oregon State lost to Arizona State 74-73, Oregon beat Arizona 73-72 in overtime.

Scouting the Beavers:

There are three things that will most likely give coach Wayne Tinkle another year in Corvallis to try to continue to build Oregon State’s program. First, Oregon State has virtually no basketball history to speak of and knows it. Second, Tinkle got the Beavers to their first NCAA tournament since 1990 in his second season. And third, Tinkle is 5-6 against Oregon since taking over the Beavers. That goes a long way in Corvallis, especially because Oregon State was 9-34 against the Ducks in the 20 years before Tinkle became the coach.

One of the reasons that Oregon St. has been competitive with the Ducks and has won four of the teams’ past five meetings is the play of Tres Tinkle, Wayne’s son, who plays in his final Civil War rivalry game and averages 18.2 points and seven rebounds per game for the Beavers. But things often result in a loss for Oregon State because the Beavers are often Tinkle and Ethan Thompson and little else. Against Arizona State, Thompson and Tinkle were on the floor for 79 of 80 minutes and combined for 45 of the Beavers’ 73 points, which was nearly enough to steal a win and would have been if any of their teammates could have topped six points.

More Picks: Dan’s WISC/MICH Pick ATS >>>

Scouting the Quack Attack:

For most teams, February is the dog days. Not so much for the Ducks, who tend to turn it on in the month before the madness. Oregon is 31-7 after Valentine’s Day in Pac-12 play over the past six seasons under Dana Altman, and the Ducks are now in a solid position to win the Pac-12 if they can get Arizona State to slip up somewhere. Even if they can’t get help from the Sun Devils, the Ducks can still set themselves up in prime position to get a top-three seed in the NCAA tournament if they can keep winning.

Right now, the most significant differences for Oregon are the play of Payton Pritchard and their fortress of Matthew Knight Arena. The Ducks are a perfect 14-0 in Eugene this season, and usually, games at Matthew Knight Arena haven’t been all that close. Only Arizona has managed to stay within eight of the Ducks, and Oregon’s had success at home because of both its offense and its defense. UCLA is the only Pac-12 team to break 70 points in regulation in Eugene, and the Bruins lost that game by 21. Meanwhile, only Colorado has managed to hold Oregon under 73 at home.

X-Factor:

OK, it’s only going to be an 8 p.m. start in the Pacific Time Zone, but that’s still a good deal later than a lot of games find themselves tipping off in the Pac-12. This is the peril of having television control so much of the schedule: you sometimes get teams getting on the court at peculiar times. Coaches hate anything that messes with their team’s routines, and playing at 8 p.m. is enough to mess up a team’s rhythm. How it affects two already hyped teams will play a role in how this game plays out.

Oregon State will Cover if:

The Beavers can get some help for Tinkle and Thompson. Oregon’s defense is good enough to take at least one of them out of the game, and the Ducks successfully did it to Tinkle in Corvallis, holding him to 4-for-13 from the field. Why did Oregon State win that game? Because Kylor Kelley and Zach Reichle stepped up and scored in double figures. The Beavers need to get more production out of them to stay in this game.

The University of Oregon will Cover if:

The Ducks can keep their foot on the gas from beginning to end. In the meeting in Corvallis, the Ducks were in firm control of the game at the 17-minute mark of the second half, leading Oregon State 40-30. The Ducks then scored one basket over the next 11 minutes and managed a mere 13 points over the final 17 minutes as Oregon State roared back to claim a 10-point victory. The Ducks cannot allow for any lulls to take place in this situation.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:

The Beavs come in having lost three in a row, and they’re now looking like they might not even make the NIT. Meanwhile, Oregon has first place in the Pac-12 on its mind and has a reasonable shot of making it happen. Plus, the Ducks are at home, and they’ve got a score to settle with the Beavers. There’s no question that Oregon gave away the game in Corvallis, and the odds are that Altman has preached making up for that night in this game. Oregon’s likely motivated, and I’m not sure how motivated Oregon State will be. Give me the Ducks. Bet tonight’s and EVERY night’s college and pro hoops games at -105 (instead of the expensive -110 that you’re laying) at 5Dimes! Making the switched to discounted odds wagering will save you THOUSANDS of dollars! Click here to start betting smarter TODAY!