Oregon Hosts Maryland: Against the Spread Pick and Analysis

Maryland Terrapins (11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)

When: Sunday, January 5th, 4:00 PM (ET)

Where: Matthew Knight Arena, OR, Eugene

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: MARY +4.5/ORE -4.5

Total: 150.5

Money Line: Maryland Terrapins +149/-184

Notable Injuries

Terrapins

• Jahari Long (Questionable) Knee
• Chance Stephens (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Braden Pierce (Out) Eye

Ducks

• Andre Warren (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Dezdrick Lindsay (Out) Shoulder

Recent Form

Maryland dropped to 11-3 on the season after a 75-69 road loss to Washington on Thursday. The Terrapins, who were favored by six points, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 144, just under the O/U line of 147.5.

Maryland led 33-30 at halftime but allowed 45 points in the second half while scoring 36. The Terrapins will need to tighten up their defense moving forward.

The Ducks fell to 12-2 on the season after a 109-77 home loss to Illinois on Thursday. Oregon, who were -4.5 favorites going into the game, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread.

After trailing 45-38 at halftime, Oregon’s defense struggled in the 2nd half, allowing 64 points while scoring just 39. The game’s total points of 186 exceeded the O/U line of 155.5.

Analysis

Maryland’s offense put up 69 points in their last game, shooting 44.1% from the field. They struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 2 of 12 attempts for 16.7%, leading to an effective field goal percentage of 45.8%. Their free-throw shooting was 68.2%, connecting on 15 of 22 attempts.

Julian Reese led the way with 22 points, shooting 75.0% from the field, while Great Osobor added 20 points and 14 rebounds, shooting 66.7%. Vazoumana Diallo contributed 18 points and six assists, and DJ Davis hit 3 of 6 from three-point range, finishing with 17 points.

Maryland’s defense gave up 75 points in their last game, with the opposing team shooting 45% from the field on 26/57 shooting. They were particularly effective from two-point range, hitting 21 of 33 shots for a 63% success rate.

From beyond the arc, Maryland held the opposing team to just 5/24 shooting, a 20% clip. However, they sent them to the free-throw line 23 times, where they converted 18 attempts, shooting 78%. Maryland also allowed 11 offensive rebounds.

Oregon’s offense put up 77 points in their last game, shooting 43.5% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage was 46.4%, and they connected on 70.6% of their free throws, going 12-for-17 at the line. The Ducks grabbed nine offensive rebounds and dished out 13 assists as a team.

Tre White and Supreme Cook both scored 20 points, shooting 8-for-11 from the field. Ben Humrichous added 18 points, hitting 4-of-7 from three-point range, while Kylan Boswell knocked down 4-of-5 threes, finishing with 15 points. Kwame Evans Jr. was perfect from the field, going 3-for-3 and 2-for-2 from deep.

Despite Oregon’s defensive efforts, they gave up 109 points, with their opponent shooting 43% from the field. The Ducks allowed 25 two-point baskets on 54 attempts, a 46% shooting rate.

From beyond the arc, Oregon’s defense held their opponent to 5 threes on 15 attempts, a 33% success rate. They also sent the opposing team to the free-throw line 17 times, where they converted 12, shooting 70%. Oregon allowed nine offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Although Maryland has a straight-up record of 1-2 in their last three road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-2. The team averaged 78 points per game in these games.
• Although Oregon has a straight-up record of 9-1 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 8-2. The team averaged 76 points per game in these games.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Terrapins have a straight-up record of 3-7 and an ATS mark of 5-5.
• The last ten games that Oregon was favored, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 8-2 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Oregon hopes to put together a better performance than they did vs Illinois, as they were blown out at home by the Illini. Now, they host Maryland as -4.5-point favorites. I think the Ducks will come out focused and ready to assert their will on Sunday. Getting the Ducks at -4.5 is a good value play, and I’m taking them to cover this number.