Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans Expert Pick 2/1/24

Oregon Ducks (14-6 SU, 12-7 ATS) vs. USC Trojans (8-12 SU, 9-11 ATS)

When: Thursday, February 1st, 10:30 PM (ET)

Where: Galen Center, CA, Los Angeles

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: ORE -2/USC +2

Total: 149.5

Money Line: U of O -130/Southern Cal +107

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Notable Injuries

Ducks

• Jesse Zarzuela (Out) Ankle
• Keeshawn Barthelemy (Out) Leg
• Mookie Cook (Out) Foot

Trojans

• Isaiah Collier (Out) Hand
• Brandon Gardner (Questionable) Undisclosed

Recent Form

After a loss to Arizona, Oregon will look to get back on track as they head to USC as two-point favorites. The Ducks are 14-6 on the season and 6-3 in Pac-12 action.

On the road, Oregon has gone 3-3 this season, and they are 4-6 in their last 10 games away from home. For the year, they have an average scoring margin of -3.2 points per game on the road.

On the season, the over/under record for Oregon games is 11-8, and today’s line of 149.5 is higher than the average over/under line of 146.6 in their games. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 with an average scoring total of 154 points.

When looking at Oregon’s ATS record this season, they are currently 12-7. As the favorite, they have gone 8-5 vs. the spread. On the road, they have an ATS mark of 3-3 this year and over their last 10 road games, they are just 3-6.

USC enters tonight’s game against Oregon as a 2-point underdog, and they are 0-6 this season when they are the underdog. The Trojans have lost five games in a row, and their record in Pac-12 play is just 2-7.

At home this season, USC is 6-5, and their average scoring margin is +4.0 points per game. Over their last 10 games at home, the Trojans have gone 5-5, and they are coming off a loss to UCLA, 65-50.

Today’s over/under line of 149.5 is similar to the average over/under line in USC’s games this season (147.7). This year, the over/under record for the Trojans is 13-7. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 137 points, which is lower than the season average (149.2).

Overall, USC has an ATS record of 9-11 this season. At home, the Trojans are just 5-6 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, USC has gone just 3-7 vs. the spread.

Analysis

In their most recent game, the Ducks’ offense tallied 78 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 78.2 points per game. In terms of three-point shooting, the Ducks offense has been good from outside, hitting 37% of their three-pointers on an average of 22.1 attempts per game. Their overall field goal percentage is currently 47%.

The Ducks’ defense is presently ranked 200th nationally, allowing an average of 72.9 points per contest. So far, the Oregon defense is giving up an average of 7.2 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 10.1 times per game (418th).

Coming off their recent game, the USC offense tallied 50 points in a matchup against UCLA. Their field goal percentage for the game was 35.4%, and they made 6 threes. Leading the team in scoring was Oziyah Sellers with 10 points. Kobe Johnson also added 8 points for the Trojans.

At present, the Trojans’ defense is nationally ranked 230th, allowing 74.7 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, USC’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 43.6% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 36.2% this season.

Betting Trends

• Oregon has a 2-3 record in their last five road games. In this stretch, they averaged 75 points per game while allowing 81. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Through their last ten home games, USC has an ATS record of just 4-6. However, their overall record was 2-8 while averaging 70 points per game.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Trojans have gone 2-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 0-5.
• Across their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Ducks have an overall record of 3-0 while going 1-2 against the spread.

Rich’s Over/Under Prediction

The Ducks’ bench took a big hit with the injury to Keeshawn Barthelemy and that with the Trojans dismal offense that has failed to hit 70 points in five straight (four without Isaiah Collier who remains out) has me on the Under. The last meeting in Oregon resulted in 156 points, but that was mainly from the Ducks taking a 17-point lead to the half forcing USC to speed up the game in the second half. I don’t think Oregon will duplicate that first half which should keep this game in the high 130s or low 140s. Take the Under 147.5