Oregon Ducks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: Point Spread Prediction

Oregon Ducks (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 30th, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, NV, Las Vegas

TV: TNT

Point Spread: ORE +5.5/ALA -5.5

Total: 165.5

Money Line: Oregon Ducks +202/-252

Notable Injuries

Ducks

• Andre Warren (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Dezdrick Lindsay (Questionable) Shoulder

Crimson Tide

• Chris Youngblood (Out) Ankle
• Houston Mallette (Out) Redshirt
• Naas Cunningham (Out) Redshirt

Recent Form

Oregon Ducks Recent Game/Games

Oregon picked up a 78-68 road win over San Diego State on Wednesday, November 27th. The Ducks entered the game as -3.5 favorites and covered the spread with the victory. The total points for the game reached 146, surpassing the O/U line of 138.5.

Oregon took control early, leading 41-31 at halftime. In the 2nd half, both teams scored 37 points, allowing the Ducks to maintain their lead and secure the win.

Alabama improved to 5-0 on the season with a 95-90 win over Rutgers on Wednesday. The Crimson Tide were -12.5 point favorites but failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 185 exceeded the O/U line of 163.

After a 41-41 tie at halftime, Alabama pulled away by scoring 54 points in the 2nd half while allowing 49. Despite the win, Alabama’s defense will need to tighten up moving forward.

Analysis

Oregon put up 78 points in their last game, shooting 44.6% from the field and 45.5% from beyond the arc, hitting 10 of 22 threes. Their effective field goal percentage was 53.6%, and they connected on 69.2% of their free throws, going 18 for 26.

TJ Bamba led the Ducks with 22 points and five assists, shooting 50% overall and 66.7% from three. BJ Davis added 18 points, and Keeshawn Barthelemy and Nick Boyd each hit 3 of 4 threes, with Barthelemy scoring 16 and Boyd adding 15 points.

Oregon’s defense gave up 68 points in their last game, with their opponents shooting 50% from the field (29/57). Inside the arc, they allowed 23 two-point baskets on 38 attempts, a 60% shooting rate.

From three-point range, Oregon’s opponents hit 6 of 19 shots, shooting 31%. They also went to the free-throw line 8 times, making 4 of those attempts. Oregon gave up six offensive rebounds.

Alabama’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 95 points with a 51.7% field goal percentage. Their effective field goal percentage was 60.3%, with strong shooting from both inside and outside the arc, hitting 60.6% on two-pointers and 40% from three-point range.

Dylan Harper led the way with 37 points, shooting 57.9% from the field, though he missed all three of his attempts from deep. Mark Sears added 24 points despite shooting just 36.8% overall and 33.3% from three. Ace Bailey contributed 22 points, while Grant Nelson chipped in 17 points and grabbed nine rebounds.

Alabama’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 90 points while allowing the opposition to shoot 51% from the field. Inside the arc, they allowed 60% shooting, with the other team hitting 20 of their 33 two-point attempts.

From three-point range, Alabama’s defense conceded ten threes on 25 attempts, a 40% shooting rate. They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 36 times, where they made 25 free throws (69%). Additionally, Alabama gave up 16 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Oregon has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0, while averaging 78 points per game.
• Although Alabama has a straight-up record of 2-3 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 85 points per game in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Ducks have a straight-up record of 5-5. Their record vs. the spread in these games was 6-4.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Alabama has an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 8-2 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Despite sitting with an undefeated record, the Oregon Ducks are +5.5 point dogs tonight in Las Vegas. Alabama survived vs Rutgers on Wednesday, which turned out to be a high-scoring matchup. Look for Oregon’s undefeated season to come to an end tonight while Alabama not only wins but covers the spread.