Ohio State vs. Villanova Prediction ATS

Ohio State Buckeyes (20-11 SU, 16-15-0 ATS) vs. Villanova Wildcats (27-7 SU, 17-15-2 ATS)
When: Sunday March 20 2022, 2:40 PM PM (ET)
Where: CONSOL Energy Center

Point Spread: Ohio State +5.5/Villanova -5.5 (MyBookie)
Total: 131.5
Money Line: Buckeyes +181/Villanova -223

Key Injuries

Ohio State
Seth Towns: Back (OUT)
Justice Sueing: Abdominal (OUT)

Villanova
Jordan Longino: Knee (QUESTIONABLE)

Recent Form

The Ohio State Buckeyes come into this matchup with an overall record of 20-11. On the season, the Buckeyes have performed well in their 10 non-conference games, posting a record of 8-2. So far, Ohio State has won exactly half of their 4 games at neutral sites, sitting at 2-2. In their past 5 contests, the team has gone just 2-3

The Villanova Wildcats get set to host the Buckeyes with an overall record of 27-7. On the season, the Wildcats have performed well in their 11 non-conference games, posting a record of 8-3. In addition to their strong non-conference record, Villanova has a good record at neutral sites, going the Wildcats are 7-1. Heading into this matchup, the Wildcats are looking to pick up their 7 straight win.

For the season, the Ohio State Buckeyes are averaging 73.2 points per game, good for a rank of 88th in the NCAA. Defensively, the Buckeyes give up an average of 67.6 points per game, 117th in the nation. On the other side, the Villanova Wildcats are the 99th ranked scoring offense, averaging 72.9 points per game while giving up 63.0

Efficiency Outlook

Villanova enters this matchup vs Ohio State, having played 31 games as the more efficient offense and defensive team. In these contests, they have posted a record of 26-5. Through 34 games, the Wildcats are averaging 77.0 points per 70.0 possessions (NCAA Average), compared to 76.0 for the Wildcats. In these situations, Villanova has an average scoring margin of 11.0 points. Until this point, the Buckeyes have not played a game in which they were the inferior team on both ends of the court. In terms of offensive efficiency, Villanova is averaging 77.0 points per 70.0 possessions (NCAA Average), compared to 76.0 for the Buckeyes.

On the season, the Buckeyes have been a balanced scoring unit, with 32.3% of their scoring coming from made three-pointers. Unlike Ohio State, the Wildcats are heavily reliant on the three-point shots, with 38.8% of their points coming from outside.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

• Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
• Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Wildcats are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 NCAA Tournament games.
• Wildcats are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 neutral site games as a favorite.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Big-name players can take a mediocre team deep into March Madness and that’s exactly what Ohio State has here in E.J. Liddell. OSU is getting hot at the right time and it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if they beat Villanova straight up, so naturally, I’m happy to take the points here!