Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans Pick | Feb 25/24

Ohio State Buckeyes (15-12 SU, 10-17 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (17-10 SU, 16-11 ATS)

When: Sunday, February 25th, 4:00 PM (ET)

Where: Breslin Center, MI, East Lansing

TV: CBS

Point Spread: OHIOST +10/MST -10

Total: 138.5

Money Line: Ohio State Buckeyes +377/-503

Notable Injuries

Buckeyes

Spartans

Recent Form

Ohio State is 15-12 overall and 5-11 in the Big Ten. They are 3-8 on the road this season and have lost their last seven road games. Their average scoring margin on the road is -3.2 points per game.

As the underdog, the Buckeyes have gone 2-7 this season. They are 0-3 in their last three road games and 0-5 in their last five. In their last 10, they have gone 2-8.

Today’s over/under line of 138.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Ohio State’s games this season (143.5). So far, 19 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2.

As the underdog, Ohio State has gone 4-5 vs. the spread this season and 10-17 overall. On the road, their ATS mark is 4-7, but they have gone 2-1 vs. the spread in their last three road games.

Michigan State will look to bounce back from a 78-71 loss to Iowa in their last game. The Spartans have been dominant at home this season, going 14-5, and they have won four of their last five games at home. On the year, Michigan State is 15-6 when favored, and they are favored by 10 points tonight.

For the year, the Spartans are 17-10, including a 9-7 record in Big Ten play. They have gone 8-3 in non-conference games, and they are 3-5 on the road compared to 14-5 at home. So far, Michigan State has an average scoring margin of +13.7 at home compared to -2.8 on the road.

Michigan State’s over/under record this season sits at 12-15, and today’s over/under line of 138.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (142.2). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 145 points, and this season, 18 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line.

Michigan State has an ATS record of 16-11 this season and they are 12-7 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Spartans are 6-4 vs. the spread.

Analysis

Ohio State’s offense is coming off a strong performance, scoring 79 points against Minnesota. They had an overall field goal percentage of 50.9% and made 14/18 free throws. The team’s top scorer is Bruce Thornton, who enters today’s matchup with an average of 16.4, while Jamison Battle also carries a PPG average of 14.2 into the game.

Ohio State’s defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 70.4 points per game. Ohio State’s three-point defense is currently 129th in the country at 6.9 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 43.6% of their shots vs. Ohio State.

The Michigan State offense is coming off a game in which they scored 71 points vs. Iowa. Overall their field goal percentage was 45% while connecting on 10 threes. The top scorer for the Spartans was Malik Hall with 16 points, while Tyson Walker also chipped in with 16 points.

So far, the Spartans’ defense is ranked 41st in the country at 66.2 points per contest. Against Iowa, the Spartans’ defense gave up 78 points and did a good job not fouling. For the game, Iowa only made 7 free throws.

Betting Trends

• In their last five games away from home, the Buckeyes have a straight up record of 0-5 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 67 points per game in these contests.
• Across their last three home contests, Michigan State has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 69 points per game.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Buckeyes have a straight up record of 2-8. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.
• The Spartans have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 3-2 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.

Rich Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Buckeyes have been awful on the road in conference play, but they have been playing better overall in February even grabbing a home win over Purdue two back. They bounced off of that win, with a rough start against the Golden Gophers, but I expect them to be able to stay with the Spartans and get the spread win. Take Ohio State +10