Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans Predictions 3/6/24

Northwestern Wildcats (20-9 SU, 15-12-2 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (17-12 SU, 17-12 ATS)

When: Wednesday, March 6th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Breslin Center, MI, East Lansing

TV: BTN

Point Spread: NW +9/MST -9

Total: 136.5

Money Line: Northwestern Wildcats +325/-428

Notable Injuries

Wildcats

• Ryan Langborg (Questionable) Ankle
• Ty Berry (Out) Knee
• Matthew Nicholson (Questionable) Leg
• Parker Strauss (Out) Undisclosed

Spartans

Recent Form

Northwestern heads into this game as a 9-point underdog, and they have gone 5-6 as the underdog this season. They are coming off a loss to Iowa, which dropped their overall record to 20-9. Over their last 10 road games, the Wildcats have gone 4-6.

On the season, Northwestern has gone 4-7 on the road, compared to 16-2 at home. They have an average scoring margin of -4.5 on the road, and their average scoring margin at home is +10.4. So far, the Wildcats have been the underdog in 11 games, and they have gone 5-6 in those contests.

Today’s over/under line of 136.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Northwestern’s games this season (137.4). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 144 points, which is higher than today’s over/under line. On the year, their over/under record is 18-11.

Northwestern has been a solid bet this season, going 15-12-2 vs. the spread. As the underdog, the Wildcats have an impressive 7-4 mark and have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three road games. Overall, Northwestern is 5-5-1 ATS on the road this year.

Michigan State has been a much better team at home this season, going 14-6 compared to 3-6 on the road. They have also been favored in 22 of their 29 games this year, going 15-7 in those contests.

Coming into today’s game, the Spartans have lost three straight, including their most recent game against Purdue, 80-74. Over their last 10 games at home, Michigan State has gone 8-2.

Today’s over/under line of 136.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Michigan State’s games this season (142.1). So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 139 points, which is less than the season average of 140.9.

When looking at Michigan State’s ATS record this season, they are currently 17-12. At home, their ATS mark is 12-8. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Spartans have gone 6-4 vs. the spread.

Analysis

Northwestern finished with 80 points in their game against Iowa. This total surpasses their season average of 74.4 points per game. The team’s scoring leader is Boo Buie, who holds an average of 18.9 as they head into today’s matchup. Additionally, Brooks Barnhizer is averaging 14.4 points per game this season.

Coming into today’s game, the Northwestern defense is giving up an average of 69.6 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Northwestern’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 45.4% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 37.1% this season.

The Michigan State offense is coming off a game in which they scored 74 points vs. Purdue. Overall their field goal percentage was 39.1% while connecting on 9 threes. For the season, the Michigan State offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA with a field goal percentage of 46%. So far, they have hit 51% of their looks from inside the arc, and are averaging 6.6 made three’s per contest.

This season, the Michigan State defense has been impressive, holding the 41st position in the country while permitting an average of 66.5 points per contest. Michigan State’s three-point defense is currently 177th in the country at 7.6 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 41.3% of their shots vs. Michigan State.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Northwestern has a 4-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 2-3, while averaging 73 points per game.
• In their last three home games, Michigan State has averaged 75 points per game while allowing 71. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
• As the betting underdog, the Wildcats have an ATS record of 5-0 in their last five games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 3-2.
• Michigan State has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.

Rich’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Northwestern has owned Michigan State in recent matchups winning and covering three straight with two of those games being played on the floor of the Jack Breslin Student Events Center. The last meeting was on January 7th when they won handedly by 14, but when handicapping this match, keep in mind that Guard Ty Berry was the leading scorer for the team in that game and he’s out for the season. Additionally, fellow Guard Ryan Langborg has missed a couple of games and whether he’ll return tonight is a question mark. The same goes for Center Matthew Nicholson who left in NW’s last game with an ankle injury. The public is backing the dog big time in this game but I’m going the other way. Take Michigan State -8.5.