Northwestern Wildcats vs. Indiana Hoosiers Point Spread Pick | 2/18/24

Northwestern Wildcats (17-8 SU, 12-11-2 ATS) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (14-10 SU, 12-11-1 ATS)

When: Sunday, February 18th, 3:00 PM (ET)

Where: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, IN, Bloomington

TV: FS1

Point Spread: NW +2/IND -2

Total: 138.5

Money Line: Northwestern Wildcats +105/-127

Notable Injuries

Wildcats

• Ty Berry (Out) Knee
• Parker Strauss (Out) Undisclosed

Hoosiers

• Xavier Johnson (Questionable) Elbow
• Shaan Burke (Out) Undisclosed
• Jordan Rayford (Out) Lower Body
• Jakai Newton (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Northwestern is 17-8 this season, including an 8-6 record in Big Ten play. The Wildcats are just 2-7 on the road, and they have lost five straight games away from home.

So far, Northwestern has been the underdog in nine games, going 3-6 in those contests. Their average scoring margin on the road is -6.7 points per game, compared to +11.3 points per game at home.

The over/under record for Northwestern this season is 16-9, and the average over/under line in their games is 137.2. Today’s over/under line of 138.5 is higher than the average scoring total in their games this year (143.8). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total is 133 points.

As the underdog, Northwestern has been solid vs. the spread this season, going 5-4. Their overall ATS record is 12-11-2, and they are 3-5-1 vs. the spread on the road.

Indiana will be looking to bounce back from a 79-59 loss to Purdue in their last game. On the season, the Hoosiers have a record of 14-10 and they are 6-7 in Big Ten play. For the year, Indiana is 11-4 at home compared to 3-6 on the road.

So far, the Hoosiers have been favored in 12 of their 24 games, going 11-1 in those contests. Indiana’s average scoring margin at home this season is +2.4, and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games at home.

Today’s over/under line of 138.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Indiana’s games this season (145.9). In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total is 147 points.

Indiana’s ATS record this season is 12-11-1, and they are 8-7 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Hoosiers are 6-3-1, and they are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 home games. Their ATS mark in their last three home games is 1-2.

Analysis

Northwestern offense recently wrapped up a game with a total of 60 points against Rutgers. In that game, they made 8/21 three-point attempts and achieved a field goal percentage of 36%. Boo Buie led the scoring for the Wildcats, contributing 27 points. Additionally, Brooks Barnhizer chipped in with 11 points.

The Wildcats’ defense is presently ranked 111st nationally, allowing an average of 69.5 points per contest. In today’s game vs. Indiana, the Northwestern defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Northwestern made 15 free-throws vs. the Wildcats.

The Indiana offense is coming off a game where they scored 59 points against Purdue. They posted a field goal percentage of 41.8% and connected on 4 threes. The top scorer for the Hoosiers was CJ Gunn with 13 points, while Mackenzie Mgbako also added 12 to the scoreboard.

At present, the Hoosiers’ defense is nationally ranked 237th, allowing 74.4 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Indiana’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 42.3% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 33.2% this season.

Betting Trends

• Northwestern has a 0-3 record in their last three road games. In this stretch, they averaged 74 points per game while allowing 81. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
• In their last five home games, Indiana has averaged 66 points per game while allowing 75. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-4 while going 3-2.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Wildcats have gone 3-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-4.
• Through their last five games as the favorite, the Hoosiers have an ATS record of 4-1 and a straight up mark of 4-1.

Rich Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Northwestern’s W/L record is a nasty 1-6 in Big Ten road games, but the most recent was against a streaking Rutgers team who is now riding a four-game win streak and overtime losses to Minnesota and Purdue. They’ve owned Indiana covering eight of their last meetings with one push. The public is siding with the Hoosiers, but I think that the Wildcats are the better team here even without Guard Ty Berry. Take Northwestern +1.5