Northwestern at Minnesota Free Pick ATS – Feb 3/2024

Northwestern Wildcats (15-6 SU, 9-9-2 ATS) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (13-7 SU, 15-4-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, February 3rd, 2:00 PM (ET)

Where: Williams Arena, MN, Minneapolis

TV: BTN

Point Spread: NW +1/MINNST -1

Total: 139

Money Line: Northwestern Wildcats -111/-110

Notable Injuries

Wildcats

• Parker Strauss (Out) Undisclosed

Golden Gophers

• Pharrel Payne (Questionable) Back
• Erick Reader (Out) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Northwestern will look to snap their two-game road losing streak when they take on Minnesota. So far this season, the Wildcats have gone 2-4 on the road compared to 13-1 at home.

Overall, Northwestern is 15-6, and they have won two straight games. In Big Ten play, they are 6-3, and their average scoring margin on the road is -6.5 points per game.

Northwestern’s over/under record for the season is 13-7 and their games have averaged 142.6 points. Today’s over/under line of 139 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this year (136.7). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0 and the average scoring total in those games is 175 points.

Northwestern’s ATS record for the season is currently 9-9-2, and they are 1-4-1 vs. the spread on the road. Over their last 10 road games, the Wildcats have gone 4-5-1 vs. the spread, and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games as the underdog.

Minnesota is 11-3 at home this season, and they have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games at home. They are favored for the 11th time this season, and their record when favored is 10-1. Their average scoring margin at home is +14.6 points per game.

The Golden Gophers’ last game was an 83-74 win over Penn State. So far this season, they have gone 13-7, including a 4-5 record in Big Ten play.

This season, the over/under record for Minnesota games is 10-10 and today’s line of 139 is lower than the average over/under line of 143.8 in their games. So far, 13 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 139 points.

Minnesota has been one of the best teams in the country against the spread this season, going 15-4-1 overall. Their ATS record at home is 11-2-1 and they have gone 8-1-1 vs. the spread in their last 10 games as the favorite.

Analysis

Northwestern’s offense is coming off a strong performance, scoring 83 points against Ohio State. They had an overall field goal percentage of 57.7% and made 13/17 free throws. Leading the team in scoring was Boo Buie with 19 points. Ryan Langborg also added 14 points for the Wildcats.

At present, the Wildcats’ defense is nationally ranked 121st, allowing 69.9 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 7.2 threes per game vs. Minnesota. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 36.9%.

Minnesota’s offense had a good outing, putting up 83 points against Penn State. They achieved a 53.8% field goal percentage and went 23/26 from the free-throw line. The team’s scoring leader is Dawson Garcia, who holds an average of 17.5 as they head into today’s matchup. Additionally, Joshua Ola-Joseph is averaging 10.3 points per game this season.

At present, the Golden Gophers’ defense is nationally ranked 91st, allowing 68.3 points per game. Against Penn State in their most recent game, the Minnesota defense gave up a total of 74 points while allowing Penn State to hit 45% of their shots.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road games, Northwestern has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 0-3 while averaging 76 points per game.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Minnesota has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 71 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• The last ten games that Northwestern was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 4-6 straight up.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Golden Gophers have a straight up record of 9-1. But, their mark vs the spread was just 8-1-1.

Rich Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

NW might be a little off after losing in overtime to Purdue and the Golden Gophers are strong at home and are off a confidence building road win over the Nittany Lions. Take Minnesota -1.5.