North Carolina vs. Louisville: Joe’s Expert Picks & Best Bets

North Carolina Tar Heels (8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS) vs. Louisville Cardinals (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

When: Wednesday, January 1st, 6:00 PM (ET)

Where: KFC Yum! Center, KY, Louisville

TV: ACCN

Point Spread: NCAR +1.5/LOU -1.5

Total: 164.5

Money Line: North Carolina Tar Heels -104/-123

Notable Injuries

Tar Heels

• Seth Trimble (Questionable) Upper Body

Cardinals

• Kasean Pryor (Out) Leg
• Koren Johnson (Out) Shoulder

Recent Form

North Carolina improved to 8-5 on the season with a 97-81 home win over Campbell on Sunday. The Tar Heels were -28 favorites going into the game but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 178, surpassing the over/under line of 155.5.

UNC led 40-29 at halftime and scored 57 points in the 2nd half, but they allowed 52 points to Campbell after the break, which kept the game closer than expected.

Louisville improved to 8-5 on the season with a 78-76 win over Eastern Kentucky on Saturday. Playing at home, the Cardinals were -21.5 point favorites but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 154, just under the O/U line of 157.5.

Louisville led 46-37 at halftime but allowed EKU to score 39 points in the 2nd half while managing only 32 points themselves.

Analysis

North Carolina put up 97 points in their last game, shooting 57.1% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 65.1%. They were dominant inside, hitting 74.3% of their two-point attempts while connecting on 35.7% from beyond the arc, making 10 threes.

Colby Duggan led the way with 32 points, hitting 5 of 9 from deep, while Ian Jackson added 26 points. RJ Davis contributed 23 points, also hitting five threes. Elliot Cadeau dished out 12 assists, adding 12 points of his own.

North Carolina’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 81 points while allowing the opposing team to shoot 57% from the field. They were particularly vulnerable inside, where they allowed 74% shooting on two-point attempts.

From beyond the arc, the Tar Heels allowed 10 threes on 28 attempts, a 35% clip. They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 20 times, where they converted 15 of those attempts.

Louisville’s offense put up 78 points in their last game despite shooting just 37.5% from the field. They connected on 11 of 36 three-point attempts, hitting 30.6% from deep, with an effective field goal percentage of 46.9%. At the free-throw line, they were efficient, making 19 of 24 attempts for a 79.2% success rate.

George Kimble III led the way with 24 points, hitting 4 of 10 from beyond the arc. Devontae Blanton added 22 points, and Terrence Edwards Jr. contributed 20, shooting 50% from both the field and three-point range. Louisville also grabbed 21 offensive rebounds, with Chucky Hepburn dishing out seven assists.

Louisville’s defense gave up 76 points in their last game, with the opposing team shooting 37% from the field, hitting 24 of 64 shots. Inside the arc, they connected on 46% of their attempts, going 13 for 28.

From three-point range, Louisville’s opponents shot 30%, making 11 of 36 attempts. They also went to the free-throw line 24 times, converting 19 of those for a 79% success rate. Louisville allowed 21 offensive rebounds in the game.

Betting Trends

• Across the Tar Heels’ last ten road games, the team averaged 76 points per game while allowing 72. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 7-3, while going 7-3 straight-up.
• Louisville has a 2-3 record in their last five home games. In this stretch, they averaged 82 points per game while allowing 78. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
• Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Tar Heels have a straight-up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs. the spread was just 1-2.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Cardinals have a straight-up record of 6-4 and an ATS mark of 3-7.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Both North Carolina and Louisville are looking for their 8th win of the season this evening as the Cardinals host the Tar Heels. Both teams are coming off wins, but Louisville can’t be pleased with just squeaking by Eastern Kentucky. I think UNC will take care of business in this one and pick up a nice road win. I’m taking North Carolina to win and cover.