NCAAB Predictions: Dayton vs. Cincinnati Best Bet & Expert Analysis
Dayton Flyers (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS)
When: Friday, December 20th, 8:30 PM (ET)
Where: Heritage Bank Center, OH, Cincinnati
TV: ESPNU
Point Spread: DAY +3.5/CIN -3.5
Total: 138.5
Money Line: Dayton Flyers +144/-174
Notable Injuries
Flyers
- Marvel Allen (Out) Knee
Bearcats
- Tyler McKinley (Out) Leg
- Halvine Dzellat (Out) Redshirt
Recent Form
Dayton improved to 9-2 this season with a narrow 66-65 win over UNLV on Tuesday. The Flyers were -10.5 favorites at home but didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total points of 131 fell short of the 140.5 O/U line.
Dayton trailed 28-27 at halftime but outscored UNLV 39-37 in the 2nd half to secure the win.
Cincinnati improved to 8-1 on the season with a 68-65 win over Xavier on Saturday. The Bearcats, who were -8 favorites, didn’t cover the spread, but they got the win. The game’s total points of 133 fell short of the 146.5 O/U line.
Trailing 31-30 at halftime, Cincinnati outscored Xavier 38-34 in the second half to secure the victory. They’ll look to build on this win as they continue their season.
Analysis
Dayton’s offense put up 66 points in their last game, shooting 47.1% from the field. They were strong inside, hitting 63.3% of their two-point attempts, but struggled from beyond the arc, making just 5 of 21 threes (23.8%).
At the free-throw line, the Flyers connected on 81.2%, going 13 for 16. Julian Rishwain hit 4 of 7 threes, finishing with 12 points, while Dedan Thomas Jr. led the team with 16 points and six assists.
Dayton’s defense gave up 65 points, allowing the opponent to shoot 47% from the field, with 24 made baskets on 51 attempts. Inside the arc, the Flyers struggled, as the opposing team hit 63% of their two-point shots, going 19/30.
From three-point range, Dayton’s defense held strong, limiting the opponent to just five made threes on 21 attempts, a 23% success rate. The Flyers also sent the other team to the line 16 times, where they converted 13 free throws, shooting 81%. Dayton allowed seven offensive rebounds in the game.
Cincinnati’s offense struggled in their last game, shooting just 37.9% from the field and 25% from three-point range, finishing with an effective field goal percentage of 41.4%. They managed to score 68 points, aided by 19 made free throws at a 73.1% clip.
Zach Freemantle led the way with 18 points despite shooting 37.5% overall and 20% from deep. Ryan Conwell added 17 points, hitting 3 of 8 from beyond the arc, while Dillon Mitchell contributed 11 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 80% from the field.
Defensively, Cincinnati held their opponent to 65 points on 37% shooting from the field, including 44% from two-point range with 17 made baskets on 38 attempts.
From beyond the arc, Cincinnati limited their opponent to 5 threes on 20 attempts, a 25% success rate. They also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 26 times, where they converted 19 for 73%.
Betting Trends
- When looking at their past five road matchups, Dayton has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 79 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
- When looking at their past three matchups at home, Cincinnati has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 72 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
- Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Flyers have a straight-up record of 1-2. Their record vs. the spread in these games was 3-0.
- The last ten games that Cincinnati was favored, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 9-1 straight up.
Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread
We have a great matchup on Friday night between two Ohio schools, as Dayton is on the road vs Cincinnati. Dayton has picked up some huge wins already this year, but I think they are a much better team in their home arena, and I see them struggling on the road tonight. Look for the Bearcats to win this one outright and cover at -3.5.
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