NCAAB Picks: SMU Mustangs vs. North Texas Mean Green

SMU Mustangs (13-5 SU, 11-5-1 ATS) vs. North Texas Mean Green (11-6 SU, 9-6 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 25th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: UNT Coliseum, TX, Denton

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: SMU +1/NTX -1

Total: 126.5

Money Line: SMU Mustangs -109/-113

Notable Injuries

Mustangs

• Denver Anglin (Out) Foot

Mean Green

• John Buggs III (Out) Shoulder
• Rubin Jones (Questionable) Hamstring

Recent Form

SMU enters this game with a 13-5 record, including a 4-1 record in American Athletic Conference games. They have won three straight games and have gone 9-4 in non-conference games. On the road, they are 4-3 this season, and their average scoring margin in these games is +6.9 points per game.

As the underdog this season, SMU has gone 1-4. They have been the underdog in five of their 18 games. The team’s average scoring margin at home is +18.3 points per game, and they have won five straight games at home.

SMU’s over/under record this season is 6-11, and the average over/under line in their games is 142.6. Today’s line of 126.5 is lower than the average scoring total in their games (138.3), and their last three games have averaged 151 points.

SMU has been solid against the spread this season, going 11-5-1. Their road ATS mark is even better, sitting at 6-1. In their last 3 road games, the Mustangs have covered the spread each time, and they are 7-2-1 vs. the spread in their last 10 road contests.

North Texas will look to bounce back from a 12-point loss to Charlotte when they host SMU. The Mean Green are 6-3 at home this season, and they have won three straight games at home.

For the year, North Texas is 11-6, including a 4-1 mark in American Athletic Conference action. They have been favored in nine of their 17 games, going 8-1 in those contests.

North Texas’ over/under record this season is 6-8-1 and today’s line of 126.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (127.7). So far, 8 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 112 points and their OU record during this stretch is 0-3.

North Texas has been solid against the spread this season with a 9-6 record. At home, their ATS mark is 6-3. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Mean Green have gone 7-3 vs. the spread.

Analysis

SMU finished with 103 points in their game against Tulsa. This total surpasses their season-average of 76.3 points per game. Leading the team in scoring is Zhuric Phelps, who is averaging 14.3 heading into today’s matchup. Additionally, Chuck Harris also maintains a PPG average of 13.3 heading into game.

At present, the Mustangs’ defense is nationally ranked 10th, allowing 62.4 points per game. So far, the SMU defense is giving up an average of 10.3 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 11.7 times per game (561st).

Most recently, the North Texas offense finished with just 44 points vs. Charlotte. For the game, they hit 1/17 three-point attempts and a field goal percentage of 32.1%. Offensively, the Mean Green hold a season-long field goal percentage of 42%, placing them 305th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 164th in terms of percentage and 157th in three-pointers made.

In the current season, the North Texas defense has excelled, sitting 4th in the nation by allowing 58.3 points per game. So far, the North Texas defense is giving up an average of 8.4 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 11.1 times per game (492nd).

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Mustangs have a straight up record of 4-6 while going 7-2-1 vs. the spread. The team averaged 71 points per game in this stretch.
• In their last five home games, North Texas has averaged 61 points per game while allowing 57. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Mustangs have a straight up record of 1-9. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-4-1.
• As the betting favorite, the Mean Green have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 4-1.

Rich’s Pick To Cover The Spread

I’m going with the betting public on this. Sure UNT has six defeats, but four were by five or fewer points and all were away from home. They’ve yet to lose at the UNT Coliseum, going 8-0 home with a 6-2 ATS mark. Take North Texas -1.5