NCAAB Picks: Illinois vs. Michigan Predictions

Illinois Fighting Illini (12-4 SU, 8-6-2 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (7-10 SU, 5-11 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 18th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Crisler Center, MI, Ann Arbor

TV: FS1

Point Spread: ILL -2.5/MICH +2.5

Total: 153

Money Line: Illinois Fighting Illini -148/+120

Notable Injuries

Fighting Illini

• Terrence Shannon Jr. (Out) Suspension
• Sencire Harris (Out) Redshirt
• Niccolo Moretti (Out) Leg
• Amani Hansberry (Questionable) Back

Wolverines

• Tray Jackson (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Cooper Smith (Out) Undisclosed
• Harrison Hochberg (Out) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Illinois comes into this game as the favorite, as they have been favored in 12 of their 16 games this season. They have gone 10-2 in those games and have an overall record of 12-4.

On the road, the Fighting Illini are 2-2, and their average scoring margin is +7.5. Over their last 10 road games, they have gone just 2-8.

Today’s over/under line of 153 is higher than the average over/under line in Illinois’ games this season (146.5). So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and over their last five games, the OU record is 4-1. The average scoring total in their last three games is 147 points.

As the favorite this season, Illinois has gone 5-6-1 against the spread. On the road, their ATS mark is 3-0-1 and over their last 10 games as the favorite, they are 5-4-1. In their last three road games, the Illini are 2-0-1 vs. the spread.

Michigan enters this game as a 2.5-point underdog, and they have gone 2-4 as an underdog this season. They are 7-10 overall and 2-4 in Big Ten play. At home, the Wolverines have gone 4-7 this season, and they are coming off a win over Ohio State.

So far, Michigan has gone 5-6 in non-conference games, and they have a +2.8 average scoring margin at home. Over their last 10 home games, they have gone just 3-7.

Over their last three games, the over/under record for Michigan is 0-3 and the average scoring total in those games is 136 points. For the season, their over/under record is 10-6 and the average scoring total in their games is 156.4 points. Today’s over/under line of 153 is lower than the average OU line in their games (149.6).

As the underdog this season, Michigan has gone 2-4 vs. the spread. Their overall ATS record for the year is 5-11. At home, the Wolverines are just 3-8 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, Michigan has gone 6-4 ATS.

Analysis

Coming off their recent game, the Illinois offense tallied 67 points in a matchup against Maryland. Their field goal percentage for the game was 32.8%, and they made 6 threes. The Illinois offense has been looking to get up shots from outside so far this season, averaging 25.1 three-point attempts per contest. Overall, they have connected on 34% of their looks from outside this season.

This season, the Illinois defense has been impressive, holding the 77th position in the country while permitting an average of 67.4 points per contest. Illinois will look once again to perform well on defense, holding Maryland to just 32% shooting in their most recent game.

In their recent matchup, the Michigan offense ended with 73 points against Ohio State. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 42.2% and made 12 threes. Offensively, the Wolverines have a season long field goal percentage of 47%, which is 87th in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 59th in percentage and 48th in three-pointers made.

At present, the Wolverines’ defense is nationally ranked 256th, allowing 77.0 points per game. The Michigan defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 65 points and allowed Ohio State to connect on 12 threes.

Betting Trends

• Although Illinois has a straight up record of 2-8 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 6-3-1. The team averaged 75 points per game in these games.
• Across their five previous home games, Michigan has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 2-3 while averaging 78 points per game.
• Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Wolverines have a straight up record of 1-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-4.
• Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Fighting Illini have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-2.

Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This will be the first meeting between these clubs this season in a series that has been dominated by Illinois in recent seasons with the Illini taking the last six and covering the spread in five straight before not getting the spread win in their latest. Illinois has just four losses on the season losing to ranked Marquette, Tennessee, Purdue before falling to Maryland who just seems to have their number on Sunday. It’s tough winning on the road in college basketball, but the Wolverines are just 4-4 SU at home and while the Illini are just 1-2 in true road games the two losses were against Tennessee and Purdue. Take Illinois -2.5