NCAA Tournament Picks: Iowa St vs. LSU

Iowa State Cyclones (20-12 SU, 17-15-0 ATS) vs. LSU Rankings (22-11 SU, 19-14-0 ATS)
When: Friday March 18 2022, 7:20 PM PM (ET)
Where: Fiserv Forum

Point Spread: Iowa State +4.5/LSU -4.5
Total: 125
Money Line: Cyclones +160/LSU -190
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Key Injuries

Iowa State
Iowa State has no reported injuries at this time.

LSU
Adam Miller: Knee (OUT)

Recent Form

The Iowa State Cyclones come into this matchup with an overall record of 20-12. On the season, the Cyclones have performed well in their 13 non-conference games, posting a record of 13-0. Heading into the NCAA Tournament, the Cyclones went 2-1 at neutral sites. Against LSU, the Cyclones will look to turn things around, as they are on a 3 game losing streak.

The LSU Rankings get set to host the Cyclones with an overall record of 22-11. On the season, the Rankings have performed well in their 13 non-conference games, posting a record of 12-1. LSU also posted a good record on neutral courts, going 4-1. Over their last 5 games, they have played above .500 basketball, holding a record of 3-2

For the season, the Iowa State Cyclones are averaging 66.5 points per game, good for a rank of 273rd in the NCAA. Defensively, the Cyclones are the 23rd ranked defense, allowing 63 points per contest. On the other side, the LSU Rankings are the 96th ranked scoring offense, averaging 73.1 points per game, while allowing 63.5

Efficiency Outlook

LSU enters this matchup vs Iowa State, having played 10 games as the more efficient offense and defensive team. In these contests, they have posted a record of 9-1. Through 33 games, the Rankings are averaging 70.0 points per 70.0 possessions (NCAA Average), compared to 67.0 for the Rankings. In these situations, LSU has an average scoring margin of 24.0 points. On the other side, the Cyclones are 10-11 as the inferior team on both ends of the court. In these 21 instances, they hold an average scoring margin of -2.0.

I don’t expect this game to be heavily dictated by three-point shooting, as both the Cyclones and Rankings are near the bottom of the NCAA in their percentage of points from beyond the arc. So far, 30.3% of Iowa State’s points are coming from three-point shots. The same goes for LSU, at 26.9%. In terms of efficiency, Iowa State has been the more efficient team, connecting at a rate of 32.1%, compared to LSU at 31.9%.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

• Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
• Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
• Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
• Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.

Joe’s Pick Against the Spread

ISU comes into this one as losers of three in a row and two of those games were absolute duds where they only put up 41 and 35 points! LSU will be fine (for this round at least) and win this game easily.