NC State vs. North Carolina Odds, Analysis, Free Pick

North Carolina State Wolfpack (17-14 SU, 15-17-1 ATS) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (25-6 SU, 19-15 ATS)

When: Saturday, March 16th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Capital One Arena, DC, Washington

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: NCST +9/NCAR -9

Total: 145.5

Money Line: North Carolina State Wolfpack +318/-430

Notable Injuries

Wolfpack

• LJ Thomas (Out) Undisclosed
• MJ Rice (Out) Redshirt
• Dennis Parker Jr. (Questionable) Illness

Tar Heels

Recent Form

North Carolina State enters this game as a +9 underdog, and they have gone 4-11 as the underdog this season. On the road, the Wolfpack have gone 7-9 this season, and they have a scoring differential of -2.5 points per game on the road.

Over their last three road games, North Carolina State has gone 3-0, and they have gone 3-2 over their last five games away from home. The Wolfpack are coming off a 74-69 win over Duke, and they have gone 4-6 over their last 10 road games.

North Carolina State’s over/under record this season is 18-14-1 and today’s line of 145.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (147.3). In their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total in those games is 142 points.

North Carolina State has an ATS record of 15-17-1 this season. On the road, the Wolfpack are 7-8-1 vs. the spread. As the underdog, N.C. State has a mark of 7-7-1 vs. the spread this year. In their last three road games, the Wolfpack are 3-0 ATS.

North Carolina State is 9-4 on the road this season, and they have won their last two games away from home. Over their last ten games on the road, the Wolfpack are 4.6 points per game better than their opponents.

North Carolina is 19-2 at home this season, and they have won their last seven games at the Dean E. Smith Center. Over their last ten games at home, the Tar Heels are 16.0 points per game better than their opponents.

So far this season, the over/under record for North Carolina games is 16-18. Today’s over/under line of 145.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this season (152.5). Currently, the average scoring total in their games is 151 points. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1, and the average scoring total is 152 points.

As the favorite, North Carolina has gone 17-14 against the spread this season, and they are 4-6 ATS in their last ten games as the favorite. At home, the Tar Heels have an ATS record of 11-10 this year and they are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 home games.

Analysis

In their recent game, the Wolfpack’s offense concluded with 74 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 76.1 points per contest. The team’s top scorer is DJ Horne, who comes into today’s matchup with an average of 16.5, while D.J. Burns also maintains a PPG average of 12.2 leading up to the game.

At this time, the Wolfpack’s defense is positioned 175th in the country, permitting 72.0 points per game. Against Duke in their most recent game, the North Carolina State defense gave up a total of 69 points while allowing Duke to hit 43% of their shots.

In their recent matchup, the North Carolina offense ended with 72 points against Pittsburgh. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 43.3% and made six threes. On the offensive front, the Tar Heels have a season-long field goal percentage of 45%, ranking 186th nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 129th in terms of percentage and 136th in three-pointers made.

So far, the Tar Heels’ defense is ranked 104th in the country at 69.7 points per contest. On average, opposing teams are hitting 7.1 threes per game vs. North Carolina State. This has come on a three-point shooting percentage of 30.6%.

Betting Trends

• North Carolina State has played well in their previous five road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 74 points per game while allowing 71. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
• In their last three home games, North Carolina has averaged 72 points per game while allowing 69. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• North Carolina State has done well both straight up and vs. the spread as the underdog, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
• Over the team’s last five games as the favorite, the Tar Heels struggled vs the spread going just 2-3. However, they still had a straight-up mark of 5-0.

Rich Crew’s Total Pick

Take the Under 145