Morgan State Bears vs. Delaware State Hornets

Morgan State Bears (9-15 SU, 10-10-1 ATS) vs. Delaware State Hornets (11-13 SU, 12-10 ATS)
When: Monday, February 19th, 7:30PM ET

Where: Memorial Hall/Bayhealth Court, Dover, Delaware

TV: Delaware State Feed

Audio: Morgan State Audio

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Morgan St. +5/Delware St. -5

Money Line: MSU +190/DSU -230

Total: 146

Notable Injuries

No significant injuries to either team.

Handicapping Analysis

There’s a lot to like about this MEAC college basketball game pitting two of college basketball’s lesser-known teams! At first glance, the play looks like a hard-pass, as neither team has done much this season. However, like many small college basketball games, there’s a story to be told as we “peel the onion.”

For starters, Morgan State at 9-15 straight up and 3-12 on the road, aren’t records which will give most handicappers the confidence to further consider placing a bet on tonight. But one can’t read a book, stop in chapter 5 and know how the rest of the story goes though, right?

When digging deeper, we see that the Morgan State Bears are a team who started very cold and have “come around” as of late. What if I told you they were 3-12 on the road? You’d say “Gross! I’m out!” But what if I told you a team was 3-1 in their last four road games? That’d surely pique your interest! Even more interesting, the Bears have won five out of their last six games. Things are heating up here Fellas! But wait! There’s more! While Morgan St. is on a mini-heater, just the opposite is going on at Delaware State, who have dropped four of their last five games.

Another note of interest is Morgan State has a higher upside on the scoreboard. They’ve scored 70+ points in seven of their last eight games. Delaware St. has been a bit more offensively challenged, scoring under 70 points in five of their last six games. The Hornets have only shot 41.9% from the field over their last five games, which is a red flag. Meanwhile, Morgan State has shot 46.3% from the field over their past five games, which is solid.

Another thing I like about Morgan State in this game is that Delaware State doesn’t guard the perimeter well, as they’ve allowed 37.3% from beyond the arc this season. That is putrid! Morgan State isn’t considered to be a good 3-point shooting team, however, if you leave guys wide open, their 30% average will spike a few percentage points. Remember, we’re already getting +5 here on the spread! It’s going to be tough for DSU to cover, much less win the game straight up allowing these kind of numbers.

Ownage

Just because it rained yesterday, doesn’t mean it’s going to rain today. Each day is a new opportunity for something better (or worse). The same can be said for sporting events. If two teams play ten times, it’s not likely that one team wins all ten events. However, I always check out the matchup history between the two teams when doing my handicapping. Some teams simply own their opponents. So much so, that I honestly believe that in certain circumstances, it gets into the heads of an opponent, and they believe they’re lost before the game even starts. This by no means ever indicates a “lock” though. That simply doesn’t exist in sports betting. Any given team can beat their opponent on any given day. However, this variable can add some nice betting value when we consistently see one team dominating the other. In tonight’s case, Delaware St. may have beaten Morgan St. earlier this season, but from a betting standpoint (historically speaking), Morgan State would have covered a +5 underdog line to the tune of 13-3 over their last 16 matchups. Does that mean they’ll cover tonight? No, but with their recent “hotness”, the Hornets playing poorly and the nice cushy +5 we’re getting tonight, it’s highly probable that Morgan State covers the point spread and has a legit shot of winning this contest straight up.

More: I always love to see the public hammering the other side, which is exactly what we’ve got tonight with only 37% backing the Bears. Generally speaking, it’s always a good thing to be on the opposite side of public perception, as 97% of college hoops bettors lose long term.

Lastly, I rarely take career coaching records into consideration, but I can’t help but wonder if Stan Waterman (19-63) has what it takes to win games at the college level. The guy was an incredible high school coach, winning ten championships over his 30 year reign, but his previous winning ways haven’t translated into success at the NCAA level. This is definitely something to take into consideration!

Kevin’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Morgan State Bears +5. I’d also consider placing 10% of your bet amount on the money line as well, as the Bears are a live dog tonight! Bet this one quick, as the line is likely to drop when the flies (wiseguys/sharps) figure out there’s chicken (a cold DSU team) at the picnic!

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